Plot contains conditional PD (probability of default) values:
before re-calibration (sample Central Tendency and AR (accuracy ratio));
after re-calibration (target Central Tendency and AR);
upper confidence interval PDs (target Central Tendency and target AR minus one standard deviation of sample AR);
References
Tasche, D. (2009) Estimating discriminatory power and PD curves when the number of defaults is small. Working paper, Lloyds Banking Group.
Tasche, D. (2013) The art of probability-of-default curve calibration. Journal of Credit Risk, 9:63-103.