The fast Fourier transform is used to extract the seasonal signal of a time series. The significant frequencies are found from among periods of length 2-, 3-, 4-, 6-, 12-, and 18-months.
The signal may be specified as stationary or non-stationary. If a non-stationary fit is allowed, simple linear regression estimates the long term linear trend. The seasonal signal is calculcated from the residuals.
Predicted flow (and corresponding residual) at each time point is calculated from seasonal signal and, if non-stationary, long term trend coefficient.