ADMUR: Ancient Demographic Modelling Using Radiocarbon
Tools to directly model underlying dynamics of radiocarbon date datasets using a Continuous Piecewise Linear (CPL) model framework, or Summed Probability Distributions (SPD) within a simulation framework.
Package to model population dynamics from anthropogenic datasets of dates, including radiocarbon dates and other date such as thermoluminescence. Provides tools to perform two modelling approaches:
1. Summed Probability Distribution generation, and simulation testing. Permits the rejection of a null hypothesis.
2. Directly models the underlying population dynamics using a Continuous Piecewise Linear (CPL) model framework.
The CPL model framework includes tools to: Estimate the dates and magnitude of demographic events (hinge points), both the Maximum likelihood (using DEoptimR search algorithm) and Credible Intervals (using MCMC Metropolis Hastings Algorithm); Perform Goodness of Fit tests; perform model comparison.
'Directly modelling population dynamics in the South American Arid Diagonal using 14C dates' by Adrian Timpson, Ramiro Barberena, Mark G. Thomas, C<U+00E9>sar M<U+00E9>ndez and Katie Manning, published in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0723