BTYDplus (version 1.2.0)

mcmc.Expectation: Unconditional Expectation for Pareto/GGG, Pareto/NBD (HB) and Pareto/NBD (Abe)

Description

Uses model parameter draws to return the expected number of repeat transactions that a randomly chosen customer (for whom we have no prior information) is expected to make in a given time period. $$E(X(t))$$.

Usage

mcmc.Expectation(draws, t, sample_size = 10000)

Arguments

draws

MCMC draws as returned by *.mcmc.DrawParameters

t

Length of time for which we are calculating the expected number of transactions. May also be a vector.

sample_size

Sample size for estimating the probability distribution.

Value

Number of repeat transactions a customer is expected to make in a time period of length t.

Details

The expected transactions need to be sampled. Due to this sampling, the return result varies from one call to another. Larger values of sample_size will generate more stable results.

Examples

# NOT RUN {
data("groceryElog")
cbs <- elog2cbs(groceryElog)
param.draws <- pnbd.mcmc.DrawParameters(cbs,
  mcmc = 100, burnin = 50, thin = 10, chains = 1) # short MCMC to run demo fast
mcmc.Expectation(param.draws, t = c(26, 52))
# }