An ShaSTPrior
object encapsulates the prior information for the short-term discrepancies of the shared discrepancy of the ensemble model.
AR_param
The parameters giving the beta parameters for the main parameter of the AR(1) process.
parametrisation_form
The parametrisation by which the covariance matrix of the noise of the AR process is decomposed.
var_params
The parameters characterising the variance of the AR process on the shared short-term discrepancy.
cor_params
The parameters characterising the correlations of the AR process on the shared short-term discrepancy.
Shared short-term discrepancies \(\mathbf{\eta}^{(t)}\) are modelled as an AR(1) process so that $$\mathbf{\eta}^{(t+1)} \sim N(R_\eta \mathbf{\eta}, \Lambda_\eta).$$ Accepted parametrisation forms for this discrepancy are lkj
, beta
, or inv_wishart
. See details of the EnsemblePrior()
constructor for more details.