# NOT RUN {
## Define example cases
cases <- EpiNow2::example_confirmed[1:40]
## Set up example generation time
generation_time <- list(mean = EpiNow2::covid_generation_times[1, ]$mean,
mean_sd = EpiNow2::covid_generation_times[1, ]$mean_sd,
sd = EpiNow2::covid_generation_times[1, ]$sd,
sd_sd = EpiNow2::covid_generation_times[1, ]$sd_sd,
max = 30)
## Set
incubation_period <- list(mean = EpiNow2::covid_incubation_period[1, ]$mean,
mean_sd = EpiNow2::covid_incubation_period[1, ]$mean_sd,
sd = EpiNow2::covid_incubation_period[1, ]$sd,
sd_sd = EpiNow2::covid_incubation_period[1, ]$sd_sd,
max = 30)
reporting_delay <- list(mean = log(5),
mean_sd = log(2),
sd = log(2),
sd_sd = log(1.5),
max = 30)
## Run model
out <- EpiNow2::estimate_infections(cases, family = "negbin",
generation_time = generation_time,
delays = list(incubation_period, reporting_delay),
samples = 1000, warmup = 200,
cores = ifelse(interactive(), 4, 1),
chains = 4, horizon = 7, estimate_rt = TRUE, verbose = TRUE)
## Plot infections
plot_estimates(
estimate = out$summarised[variable == "infections"],
reported = cases,
ylab = "Cases", max_plot = 2) + ggplot2::facet_wrap(~type, scales = "free_y")
## Plot reported cases estimated via Rt
plot_estimates(estimate = out$summarised[variable == "reported_cases"],
reported = cases,
ylab = "Cases")
## Plot Rt estimates
plot_estimates(estimate = out$summarised[variable == "R"],
ylab = "Effective Reproduction No.",
hline = 1)
# }
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