For a GNAR(p,[S]) model, the BIC is calculated as
$$BIC(p,S) = \ln | \Sigma_{p,S} | + T^{-1} M\ln(T)$$
where \(\Sigma_{p,S}=T^{-1}U'U\), \(U\) is the matrix of residuals, and \(M=np + C\sum_{j=1}^p S_j\) when globalalpha=FALSE
, \(M=p + C\sum_{j=1}^p S_j\) when globalalpha=TRUE
, and C
is the number of factors.
For definiteness, we seek to minimize the BIC. Often, better models have
a small BIC.