data <- trex[1:200,]
# initial parameters and observations
par <- list(
log_mu = log(c(0.3, 1)), # initial means for step length (log-transformed)
log_sigma = log(c(0.2, 0.7)), # initial sds for step length (log-transformed)
eta = rep(-2, 2) # initial t.p.m. parameters (on logit scale)
)
dat <- list(
step = data$step, # hourly step lengths
nStates = 2 # number of hidden states
)
# likelihood function
nll <- function(par) {
getAll(par, dat)
Gamma <- tpm(eta)
delta <- stationary(Gamma)
mu <- exp(log_mu); REPORT(mu)
sigma <- exp(log_sigma); REPORT(sigma)
allprobs <- matrix(1, length(step), nStates)
ind <- which(!is.na(step))
for(j in 1:nStates) {
allprobs[ind,j] <- dgamma2(step[ind], mu[j], sigma[j])
}
-forward(delta, Gamma, allprobs)
}
# automatic differentiation and optimisation
obj <- MakeADFun(nll, par, silent = TRUE)
opt <- nlminb(obj$par, obj$fn, obj$gr)
### reporting ###
mod <- report(obj)
# estimated parameters
mod$par
# estimated quantities on natural scale
mod$mu
mod$sigma
mod$Gamma
# information criteria
AIC(mod)
BIC(mod)
# state decoding
states <- viterbi(mod = mod) # global decoding
probs <- stateprobs(mod = mod) # local decoding
# residual calculation
pres <- pseudo_res(data$step, # observation sequence
"gamma2", # distribution family
list(mean = mod$mu, sd = mod$sigma), # parameters for that family
mod = mod) # model object
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