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MNP (version 1.0-4)

mprobit: Fitting the Multinomial Probit Models via Markov chain Monte Carlo

Description

mprobit is used to fit the (Bayesian) Multinomial Probit models via Markov chain Monte Carlo. Along with the standard Multinomial Probit model, it can also fit models with different choice sets for each observation, and complete or partial ordering of all the available alternatives. The computation uses the efficient marginal data augmentation algorithm that is developed by Imai and van Dyk (2004).

Usage

mprobit(formula, data = parent.frame(), choiceX = NULL, cXnames = NULL,
        base = NULL, n.draws = 5000, p.var = "Inf",  p.df = n.dim+1, p.scale = 1,
        coef.start = 0, cov.start = 1, burnin = 0, thin = 0, verbose = FALSE)

Arguments

formula
A symbolic description of the model to be fit specifying the response variable and covariates. The formula should not include the choice-specific covariates. Details and specific examples are given below.
data
An optional data frame in which to interpret the variables in formula and choiceX. The default is the environment in which mprobit is called.
choiceX
An optional list containing a matrix of choice-specific covariates for each category. Details and examples are provided below.
cXnames
A vector of the names for the choice-specific covariates specified in choiceX. The details and examples are provided below.
base
The name of the base category. For the standard Multinomial Probit model, the default is the lowest level of the response variable. For the Multinomial ordered Probit model, the default base category will be the last column in the matrix of
n.draws
A positive integer. The number of MCMC draws. The default is 5000.
p.var
A positive definite matrix. The prior variance of the coefficients. A scalar input can set the prior variance to the diagonal matrix whose diagonal element is equal to that value. The default is "Inf", which represents an imprope
p.df
A positive integer greater than n.dim-1. The prior degree of freedom parameter for the covariance matrix. The default is n.dim+1, which is equal to the total number of alternatives.
p.scale
A positive definite matrix whose first diagonal element is setn to 1. The prior scale matrix for the covariance matrix. The first diagonal element will be set to 1 if it is not equal to 1 already. A scalar input can be used to set
coef.start
A vector. The starting values for the coefficients. A scalar input will set the starting values for all the coefficients equal to that value. The default is 0.
cov.start
A positive definite matrix whose first diagonal element is set to 1. The starting values for the covariance matrix. The first diagonal element will be set to 1 if it is not equal to 1 already. A scalar input can be used to set the
burnin
A positive integer. The burnin interval for the Markov chain; i.e., the number of initial Gibbs draws that should not be stored. The default is 0.
thin
A positive integer. The thinning interval for the Markov chain; i.e., the number of Gibbs draws between the recorded values that are skipped. The default is 0.
verbose
logical. If TRUE, helpful messages along with a progress report (every 10%) of the Gibbs sampling are printed on the screen. The default is FALSE.

Value

  • An object of class mnp containing the following elements:
  • paramA matrix of the Gibbs draws for each parameter; i.e., the coefficients and covariance matrix. For the covariance matrix, the elements on or above the diagonal are returned.
  • callThe matched call.
  • xThe matrix of covariates.
  • yThe vector or matrix of the response variable.
  • n.altThe total number of alternatives.
  • p.varThe prior variance for the coefficients.
  • p.dfThe prior degrees of freedom parameter for the covariance matrix.
  • p.scaleThe prior scale matrix for the covariance matrix.
  • burninThe number of initial burnin draws.
  • thinThe thinning interval.
  • seedThe Random seed that is used for Gibbs sampling. Stores .Random.seed.

Details

For the standard Multinomial Probit model where only the most preferred choice is observed, use the syntax, y ~ x1 + x2, where y is a factor variable indicating the most preferred choice and x1 and x2 are individual-specific covariates. The inerations of individual-specific variables with each of the choice indicator variables will be fit. To specify choice specific covariates, use the syntax, choiceX=list(A=cbind(z1, z2), B=cbind(z3, z4), C=cbind(z5, z6)), where A, B, and C represent the choice names of the response varaible, and z1 and z2 are each vectors of length $n$ that record the values of the two choice-specic covariates for each individual for choice A, likewise for z3, ..., z6. The corresponding variable names via cXnames=c("price", "quantity") need to be specified, where price refers to the coefficient name for z1, z3, and z5, and quantity refers to that for z2, z4, and z6.

If the choice set varies from one observation to another, use the syntax, cbind(y1, y2, y3) ~ x1 + x2, in the case of a three choice problem, and indicate unavailable alternatives by NA. If only the most preferred choice is observed, y1, y2, and y3 are indicator variables that take on the value one for individuals who prefer that choice and zero otherwise. The last column of the response matrix, y3 in this particular example syntax, is used as the base category. For the Multinomial ordered Probit model where the complete or partial ordering of the available alternatives is recorded, use the same syntax as when the choice set varies (i.e., cbind(y1, y2, y3, y4) ~ x1 + x2). For each observation, all the available alternatives in the response variables should be numerically ordered in terms of preferences such as 1 2 2 3. Ties are allowed. The missing values in the response variable should be denoted by NA. The software will impute these missing values using the specified covariates. The resulting uncertainty estimates of the parameters will properly reflect the amount of missing data. For example, we expect the standard errors to be larger when there is more missing data.

References

Imai, Kosuke and David A. van Dyk. (2004) A Bayesian Analysis of the Multinomial Probit Model Using the Marginal Data Augmentation, Journal of Econometrics, Forthcoming. http://www.princeton.edu/~kimai/research/mnp.html

See Also

summary.mnp; http://www.princeton.edu/~kimai/research/MNP.html for the full documentation.

Examples

Run this code
## load the detergent data
data(detergent)
## run the standard Multinomial Probit model with intercepts and the price
res1 <- mprobit(choice ~ 1, choiceX=list(Surf=Surf, Tide=Tide, Wisk=Wisk,
                                         EraPlus=EraPlus, Solo=Solo, All=All),
                cXnames=c("price"), data=detergent, n.draws=5000,
                p.df=6, burnin=1000, thin=3, verbose=TRUE) 
summary(res1)

## load the Japanese election data
data(japan)
## run the Multinomial ordered Probit model
res2 <- mprobit(cbind(LDP, NFP, SKG, JCP) ~ sex + education + age,
                data = japan, n.draws=5000, verbose = TRUE)
summary(res2)

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