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MSBVAR (version 0.1.1)

Bayesian Vector Autoregression Models, Impulse Responses and Forecasting.

Description

Provides methods for estimating frequentist and Bayesian Vector Autoregression (VAR) models. Also includes methods for the generating posterior inferences for VAR forecasts, impulse responses (using likelihood-based error bands), and forecast error decompositions. Also includes utility functions for plotting forecasts and impulse responses, and generating draws from Wishart and singular multivariate normal densities. Future versions will include Bayesian Structural VAR (B-SVAR) models and possibly some models with Markov switching.

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Version

Install

install.packages('MSBVAR')

Monthly Downloads

19

Version

0.1.1

License

GPL version 2 or newer

Maintainer

Patrick Brandt

Last Published

February 15th, 2017

Functions in MSBVAR (0.1.1)

forc.ecdf

Empirical CDF computations for posterior forecast samples
irf.var

Impulse Response Function (IRF) Computation for a VAR
cf.forecasts

Compare VAR forecasts to each other or real data
decay.spec

Lag decay specification check
granger.test

Bivariate Granger causality testing
var.lag.specification

Automated VAR lag specification testing
rmse

Root mean squared error of a Monte Carlo / MCMC sample of forecasts
reduced.form.var

Estimation of a reduced form VAR model
plot.var.forecasts

Plots competing sets of VAR forecasts or a single set of VAR forecasts
forecast.var

Generate forecasts for fitted VAR objects
dfev

Decompositions of Forecast Error Variance (DFEV) for VAR models
mae

Mean absolute error of VAR forecasts
plot.irf.var

Plots impulse responses
mc.irf.var

Monte Carlo Integration / Simulation of Impulse Response Functions
hc.forecast.var

Forecast density estimation of hard condition forecasts for VAR models via MCMC
restmtx

Utility function for generating the restriction matrix for hard condition forecasting
rwishart

Random deviates from a Wishart distribution
szbvar

Sims-Zha Bayesian VAR model estimation
print.dfev

Printing DFEV tables
plot.forc.ecdf

Plots VAR forecasts and their empirical error bands
plot.mc.irf.var

Plotting posteriors of Monte Carlo simulated impulse responses
uc.forecast.var

Forecast density estimation unconditional forecasts for VAR models via MCMC
IsraelPalestineConflict

Weekly Goldstein Scaled Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Data, 1979-2003
mountains

Mountain plots for summarizing forecast densities
rmultnorm

Multivariate Normal Random Number Generator
SZ.prior.evaluation

Sims-Zha Bayesian VAR Prior Specification Search