MortCast (version 2.7-0)

kannisto.predict: Kannisto Prediction

Description

Given estimated Kannisto parameters (coherent or original), it predicts mortality rates for given ages.

Usage

kannisto.predict(pars, ages)

Arguments

pars

A named vector with Kanisto coefficients \(c\) and \(d\) (e.g. result of kannisto.estimate or cokannisto.estimate).

ages

A vector of ages to make prediction for. These can be indices of age groups or raw ages, but on the same scale as used in the estimation.

Value

Vector of predicted mortality rates.

Details

Given parameters \(c\) and \(d\) in pars, the function uses the Kannisto equation \(logit(m_x) = \log(c) + dx\), to predict mortality rates for age groups \(x\) given by ages.

References

Thatcher, A. R., Kannisto, V. and Vaupel, J. W. (1998). The Force of Mortality at Ages 80 to 120, volume 5 of Odense Monographs on Population Aging Series. Odense, Denmark: Odense University Press.

See Also

cokannisto, kannisto.estimate, cokannisto.estimate

Examples

# NOT RUN {
data(mxM, mxF, package = "wpp2017")
mxm <- subset(mxM, name == "Germany")[,"2010-2015"]
ages <- c(0, 1, seq(5, 130, by=5))

# using original Kannisto parameters
pars <- kannisto.estimate(mxm[18:21], ages = ages[18:21])
mxm.pred <- kannisto.predict(pars$coefficients, ages = ages[22:28])
plot(ages, c(mxm[1:21], mxm.pred), type="l", log="y", 
    xlab="age", ylab="mx")
    
# Coherent Kannisto
mxf <- subset(mxF, name == "Germany")[,"2010-2015"]
copars <- cokannisto.estimate(
   mxm[18:21], mxf[18:21], ages = ages[18:21])
cmxm.pred <- kannisto.predict(copars[["male"]]$coefficients, ages = ages[22:28])
cmxf.pred <- kannisto.predict(copars[["female"]]$coefficients, ages = ages[22:28])
plot(ages, c(mxm[1:21], cmxm.pred), type="l", log="y", 
    xlab="age", ylab="mx", col="blue")
lines(ages, c(mxf[1:21], cmxf.pred), col="red")

# }