Online Change Point Detection for Matrix-Valued Time Series
Description
We provide two algorithms for monitoring change points with online matrix-valued time series, under the assumption of a two-way factor structure. The algorithms are based on different calculations of the second moment matrices. One is based on stacking the columns of matrix observations, while another is by a more delicate projected approach. A well-known fact is that, in the presence of a change point, a factor model can be rewritten as a model with a larger number of common factors. In turn, this entails that, in the presence of a change point, the number of spiked eigenvalues in the second moment matrix of the data increases. Based on this, we propose two families of procedures - one based on the fluctuations of partial sums, and one based on extreme value theory - to monitor whether the first non-spiked eigenvalue diverges after a point in time in the monitoring horizon, thereby indicating the presence of a change point. This package also provides some simple functions for detecting and removing outliers, imputing missing entries and testing moments. See more details in He et al. (2021).