Learn R Programming

PANICr (version 0.0.0.2)

MCMCpanic04: PANIC (2004) MCMC Non-Stationarity Tests on Common and Idiosyncratic Components

Description

This function performs an MCMC over PANIC (2010) Model C, PAC, and PMSB tests. PAC estimates the pooled autoregressive coefficient, PMSB uses a sample moment, and Model C performs the MP test while projecting on intercept and trend. The sample moments test is based off of the modified Sargan-Bhargava test (PMSB).

Usage

MCMCpanic04(x, nfac, k1, jj,burn = 1000, mcmc = 10000, thin = 10, verbose = 0,
seed = NA, lambda.start = NA, psi.start = NA, l0 = 0, L0 = 0,
a0 = 0.001, b0 = 0.001, std.var = TRUE)

Arguments

x
A NxT matrix containing the data
nfac
An integer specifying the maximum number of factors allowed while estimating the factor model.
k1
The maximum lag allowed in the ADF test.
jj
an Integer 1 through 8. Choices 1 through 7 are respectively, IC(1), IC(2), IC(3), AIC(1), BIC(1), AIC(3), and BIC(3), respectively. Choosing 8 makes the number of factors equal to the number of columns whose sum of eigenvalues is less than or equal to .
burn
The number of burn in iterators for the sampler
mcmc
The number of iterations in the sampler
thin
The thinning interval used in the simulation. mcmc must be divisible by this value.
verbose
A positive integer which determines whether or not the progress of the sampler is printed to the screen. If verbose is greater than 0 the iteration number and the factor loadings and uniquenesses are printed to the screen every verboseth iteration.
seed
The seed for the random number generator.
lambda.start
Starting values for the factor loading matrix Lambda.
psi.start
Starting values for the uniqueness
l0
The means of the independent Normal prior on the factor loadings
L0
A scalar or a matrix with the same dimensions as lambda. The precision (inverse variances) of the independent Normal prior on the factor loadings.
a0
scalar or a k-vector. Controls the shape of the inverse Gamma prior on the uniqueness.
b0
Controls the scale of the inverse Gamma prior on the uniqueness.
std.var
if TRUE the variables are rescaled to have zero mean and unit variance. Otherwise, the variables are rescaled to have zero mean, but retain their observed variances

Value

  • adf.mcmc A list of the MCMC samples of the test statistics. Returns the test statistics Pooled Cointegration a, Pooled Cointegration b, Pooled Idiosyncratic a, Pooled Idiosyncratic b, Pooled Demeaned test, and tests on Common components. The critical values for the Pooled Cointegration test can be found on this packages vignette or in Bai and Ng (2004). The pooled idiosyncratic test has a critical value of 1.64. The Pooled Demeaned test has a critical value of 2.87. The common components have a critical value of -2.86.

    factor_mcmc The MCMC results from MCMCfactanal()

References

Bai, Jushan, and Serena Ng. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration." Econometrica 72.4 (2004): 1127-1177. Print.

ndrew D. Martin, Kevin M. Quinn, Jong Hee Park (2011). MCMCpack: Markov Chain Monte Carlo in R. Journal of Statistical Software. 42(9): 1-21. URL http://www.jstatsoft.org/v42/i09/.