{"Package":"SafeVote","Type":"Package","Title":"Election Vote Counting with Safety Features","Version":"1.0.2","Date":"2026-03-23","Authors@R":"c(person(\"Clark\",\"Thomborson\",role=c(\"cre\",\"aut\"),\nemail=\"c.thomborson@auckland.ac.nz\",comment=c(ORCID=\"0000-0002-4147-7898\")))","Description":"Fork of 'vote_2.3-2', Raftery et al. (2021)\n, with additional support\nfor stochastic experimentation.","Depends":"R (>= 3.5.0)","Imports":"formattable, knitr, fields, grDevices, graphics, utils,\nggplot2, data.table, stringr, forcats, dplyr","Encoding":"UTF-8","License":"GPL (>= 2)","Language":"EN-GB","NeedsCompilation":"no","RoxygenNote":"7.3.3","LazyData":"true","URL":"https://cthombor.github.io/SafeVote/","Suggests":"testthat (>= 3.0.0), vote, STV","Config/testthat/edition":"3","Packaged":"2026-03-23 08:01:46 UTC; cthom","Author":"Clark Thomborson [cre, aut] (ORCID:\n)","Maintainer":"Clark Thomborson ","Repository":"CRAN","Date/Publication":"2026-03-23 08:30:15 UTC","repoType":"cran","tarballUrl":"ftp://cran.r-project.org/pub/R/src/contrib/SafeVote_1.0.2.tar.gz","jsonAuthors":[{"name":"Clark Thomborson","email":"c.thomborson@auckland.ac.nz","maintainer":true}],"readme":"\n\n\n# SafeVote\n\n\n\n\n\nThe goals of SafeVote are to investigate the safety of announcing\npreliminary results from an election, and to allow experimental study of\nthe safety of a complete ranking of all candidates (as in a party list)\nthat is derived from a small-scale election with preferential ballots.\n\n## Installation\n\nYou can install the development version of SafeVote from\n[GitHub](https://github.com/) with:\n\n``` r\n# install.packages(\"devtools\")\ndevtools::install_github(\"cthombor/SafeVote\")\n```\n\n## Example\n\nThis mod of [vote.2.3-2](https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=vote)\nreports the margins of victory in an election.\n\nThe value of the `safety` parameter will affect the completeness of the\nsafeRank ordering of the candidates. Setting `safety = 0` will cause\nsafeRank to be a total ranking of the candidates, except in the rare\ncase that there is an exact tie. The “fuzz” $z$ on the\nvote-differentials in a safeRank clustering of the candidates is\n$z = s\\sqrt{n}$, where $s$ is the value of the safety parameter and $n$\nis the number of ballots.\n\n``` r\nlibrary(SafeVote)\nstv(food_election,quiet=TRUE)$rankingTable\n#> Rank Margin Candidate Elected SafeRank\n#> 1 1 8.0000000 Chocolate x 1\n#> 2 2 0.5548889 Strawberries x 2\n#> 3 3 1.2225556 Oranges 2\n#> 4 4 0.7774444 Sweets 2\n#> 5 5 NA Pears 2\nstv(food_election,quiet=TRUE,safety=0)$rankingTable\n#> Rank Margin Candidate Elected SafeRank\n#> 1 1 8.0000000 Chocolate x 1\n#> 2 2 0.5548889 Strawberries x 2\n#> 3 3 1.2225556 Oranges 3\n#> 4 4 0.7774444 Sweets 4\n#> 5 5 NA Pears 5\n```\n\nThree safety-testing routines are supplied, to support experimental\nstudy of the stochastic behaviour of ballot counting methods.\n\n## testFraction\n\n[testFraction](#testfraction) draws a series of independent samples from\na ballot box. Stochastic experimentation with this method will, we hope,\nhelp future researchers develop advice, to election officials, on\nwhether a preliminary count is sufficiently stable for them to make a\npreliminary announcement of the result – without undue risk of having to\nretract their announcement as had occurred in [Hastings NZ in October\n2022](http://web.archive.org/web/20230000000000*/www.1news.co.nz/2022/10/12/public-humiliation-council-apologises-for-election-result-error/).\nAs seen below, in the case of the\n[yale_ballots](https://cthombor.github.io/SafeVote/reference/yale_ballots)\ndataset, 400 of the 479 votes were sufficient to establish candidates\nATL_19, ATL_10, and ATL_2 as being very likely to be three of the four\nwinners. The balloting was extremely close for the fourth seat. ATL_54\nwas the eventual winner; but ATL_54 and ATL_27 are ranked approximately\n5= as the last 50 ballots are counted. The STV variant used in this\nexperiment has fractional vote-transfers and a Hare quota.\n\n``` r\nlibrary(SafeVote)\nxrHare <- testFraction(yale_ballots,arep=9,ainc=5,astart=400,\n countArgs=list(nseats=4,safety=0.0,quota.hare=TRUE))\n#> Progress in counting stv ballots:\n#> 0.7%, 1.4%, 2.1%, 2.8%, 3.5%, 4.2%, 4.9%, 5.6%, 6.2%, 6.9%,\n#> 7.6%, 8.3%, 9%, 9.7%, 10.4%, 11.1%, 11.8%, 12.5%, 13.2%, 13.9%,\n#> 14.6%, 15.3%, 16%, 16.7%, 17.4%, 18.1%, 18.8%, 19.4%, 20.1%, 20.8%,\n#> 21.5%, 22.2%, 22.9%, 23.6%, 24.3%, 25%, 25.7%, 26.4%, 27.1%, 27.8%,\n#> 28.5%, 29.2%, 29.9%, 30.6%, 31.2%, 31.9%, 32.6%, 33.3%, 34%, 34.7%,\n#> 35.4%, 36.1%, 36.8%, 37.5%, 38.2%, 38.9%, 39.6%, 40.3%, 41%, 41.7%,\n#> 42.4%, 43.1%, 43.8%, 44.4%, 45.1%, 45.8%, 46.5%, 47.2%, 47.9%, 48.6%,\n#> 49.3%, 50%, 50.7%, 51.4%, 52.1%, 52.8%, 53.5%, 54.2%, 54.9%, 55.6%,\n#> 56.2%, 56.9%, 57.6%, 58.3%, 59%, 59.7%, 60.4%, 61.1%, 61.8%, 62.5%,\n#> 63.2%, 63.9%, 64.6%, 65.3%, 66%, 66.7%, 67.4%, 68.1%, 68.8%, 69.4%,\n#> 70.1%, 70.8%, 71.5%, 72.2%, 72.9%, 73.6%, 74.3%, 75%, 75.7%, 76.4%,\n#> 77.1%, 77.8%, 78.5%, 79.2%, 79.9%, 80.6%, 81.2%, 81.9%, 82.6%, 83.3%,\n#> 84%, 84.7%, 85.4%, 86.1%, 86.8%, 87.5%, 88.2%, 88.9%, 89.6%, 90.3%,\n#> 91%, 91.7%, 92.4%, 93.1%, 93.8%, 94.4%, 95.1%, 95.8%, 96.5%, 97.2%,\n#> 97.9%, 98.6%, 99.3%, 100%\n#> \n#> Results of testFraction at 2026-03-23 21:00:54\n#> \n#> Dataset = yale_ballots, countMethod = stv, rankMethod = safeRank\n#> \n#> | | nseats| safety| quota.hare|\n#> |:---------|------:|------:|----------:|\n#> |countArgs | 4| 0| TRUE|\n#> \n#> \n#> | | astart| ainc| arep|\n#> |:------------|------:|----:|----:|\n#> |otherFactors | 400| 5| 9|\n#> \n#> Experiment ID, number of ballots in simulated election, ranks, winning margins:\n#> \n#> |exptID | nBallots| ATL_16| ATL_27| ATL_14| ATL_54| ATL_87| ATL_1| ATL_26| ATL_29| ATL_6| ATL_25| ATL_93| ATL_30| ATL_88| ATL_21| ATL_10| ATL_34| ATL_7| ATL_13| ATL_9| ATL_2| ATL_11| ATL_36| ATL_31| ATL_126| ATL_18| ATL_89| ATL_19| ATL_5| ATL_90| ATL_17| ATL_32| ATL_91| ATL_23| ATL_15| ATL_28| ATL_33| ATL_3| ATL_92| ATL_4| ATL_22| ATL_8| ATL_24| ATL_35| ATL_20| m.ATL_16| m.ATL_27| m.ATL_14| m.ATL_54| m.ATL_87| m.ATL_1| m.ATL_26| m.ATL_29| m.ATL_6| m.ATL_25| m.ATL_93| m.ATL_30| m.ATL_88| m.ATL_21| m.ATL_10| m.ATL_34| m.ATL_7| m.ATL_13| m.ATL_9| m.ATL_2| m.ATL_11| m.ATL_36| m.ATL_31| m.ATL_126| m.ATL_18| m.ATL_89| m.ATL_19| m.ATL_5| m.ATL_90| m.ATL_17| m.ATL_32| m.ATL_91| m.ATL_23| m.ATL_15| m.ATL_28| m.ATL_33| m.ATL_3| m.ATL_92| m.ATL_4| m.ATL_22| m.ATL_8| m.ATL_24| m.ATL_35| m.ATL_20|\n#> |:------|--------:|------:|------:|------:|------:|------:|-----:|------:|------:|-----:|------:|------:|------:|------:|------:|------:|------:|-----:|------:|-----:|-----:|------:|------:|------:|-------:|------:|------:|------:|-----:|------:|------:|------:|------:|------:|------:|------:|------:|-----:|------:|-----:|------:|-----:|------:|------:|------:|--------:|----------:|--------:|---------:|--------:|-------:|--------:|--------:|-------:|--------:|--------:|--------:|--------:|--------:|---------:|--------:|-------:|--------:|-------:|---------:|--------:|--------:|--------:|---------:|--------:|--------:|--------:|-------:|--------:|--------:|--------:|--------:|--------:|--------:|--------:|--------:|-------:|--------:|-------:|--------:|-------:|--------:|--------:|--------:|\n#> |QCY1 | 400| 17| 4| 26| 5| 30| 20| 22| 13| 6| 9| 14| 33| 35| 34| 2| 18| 12| 39| 31| 3| 24| 27| 10| 21| 25| 28| 1| 32| 37| 23| 15| 7| 16| 43| 29| 38| 8| 36| 44| 19| 41| 40| 42| 11| 1| 8.0370247| 1| 45.296197| 0| 1| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 6.148099| 1| 1| 0| 0| 7.677727| 1| 0| 3| 1| 1| 0| 31| 1| 0| 0| 1| 8| 1| 1| 0| 1| 3| 0| 0| 1| 0| 1| 0| 1|\n#> |QCY2 | 405| 23| 4| 27| 5| 26| 19| 18| 16| 6| 10| 13| 34| 28| 35| 2| 20| 12| 29| 31| 3| 24| 25| 11| 32| 22| 40| 1| 30| 38| 21| 14| 7| 15| 41| 37| 39| 8| 36| 43| 17| 33| 44| 42| 9| 0| 5.0187250| 0| 46.065537| 1| 0| 0| 1| 4| 0| 0| 0| 1| 0| 7.074900| 1| 1| 0| 0| 13.852629| 2| 0| 1| 1| 0| 0| 29| 1| 0| 1| 3| 6| 1| 0| 0| 1| 3| 0| 0| 2| 0| 0| 1| 0|\n#> |QCY3 | 410| 18| 4| 33| 5| 34| 21| 20| 16| 7| 10| 17| 40| 27| 29| 2| 30| 14| 25| 28| 3| 36| 19| 12| 23| 24| 26| 1| 35| 38| 15| 13| 6| 22| 43| 37| 32| 8| 31| 44| 11| 39| 41| 42| 9| 0| 3.2790000| 0| 49.279000| 0| 0| 1| 0| 2| 0| 2| 0| 0| 0| 12.325500| 0| 2| 1| 0| 13.281963| 0| 1| 3| 2| 1| 0| 29| 0| 1| 1| 1| 3| 0| 1| 0| 0| 2| 0| 0| 1| 0| 1| 0| 0|\n#> |QCY4 | 415| 18| 4| 27| 5| 37| 17| 19| 14| 12| 7| 13| 29| 30| 32| 2| 24| 10| 25| 31| 3| 21| 28| 20| 22| 23| 34| 1| 41| 40| 16| 11| 6| 26| 42| 35| 36| 8| 33| 44| 15| 38| 39| 43| 9| 2| 2.4223333| 0| 50.362000| 1| 0| 0| 2| 1| 1| 1| 1| 1| 0| 15.181000| 2| 1| 0| 0| 6.997179| 0| 1| 1| 1| 0| 0| 30| 0| 1| 1| 1| 1| 0| 0| 0| 0| 5| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| 2| 0|\n#> |QCY5 | 420| 17| 5| 29| 4| 18| 20| 21| 13| 6| 7| 12| 34| 35| 39| 2| 22| 15| 28| 30| 3| 24| 26| 10| 27| 23| 33| 1| 31| 40| 25| 11| 8| 16| 43| 36| 37| 9| 32| 44| 19| 38| 41| 42| 14| 0| 46.7583258| 0| 1.915742| 1| 1| 0| 0| 2| 2| 1| 1| 0| 0| 2.252775| 2| 3| 0| 0| 9.211592| 1| 0| 2| 1| 0| 0| 33| 1| 1| 0| 1| 3| 1| 1| 0| 1| 3| 0| 0| 1| 0| 0| 0| 0|\n#> |QCY6 | 425| 19| 4| 34| 5| 26| 17| 23| 15| 7| 9| 13| 35| 29| 41| 2| 28| 12| 27| 38| 3| 25| 20| 10| 22| 24| 30| 1| 31| 37| 16| 14| 6| 21| 42| 32| 33| 8| 36| 43| 18| 39| 40| 44| 11| 1| 2.7082917| 0| 51.416583| 1| 0| 1| 0| 5| 0| 3| 1| 0| 0| 16.885365| 0| 2| 0| 0| 9.215161| 1| 1| 2| 1| 0| 0| 34| 0| 1| 1| 1| 3| 0| 1| 0| 0| 1| 0| 0| 1| 0| 1| 0| 2|\n#> |QCY7 | 430| 15| 4| 30| 5| 31| 20| 22| 16| 7| 9| 17| 41| 34| 33| 2| 19| 12| 23| 29| 3| 24| 25| 11| 27| 26| 38| 1| 28| 35| 21| 14| 6| 13| 42| 36| 37| 8| 32| 44| 18| 40| 39| 43| 10| 1| 0.3625714| 0| 51.362571| 1| 1| 0| 0| 6| 3| 1| 0| 0| 0| 18.362571| 2| 1| 0| 0| 10.862058| 0| 1| 2| 1| 0| 0| 31| 1| 0| 2| 0| 2| 2| 0| 0| 1| 2| 1| 0| 1| 0| 1| 1| 0|\n#> |QCY8 | 435| 16| 4| 28| 5| 25| 18| 21| 14| 6| 9| 15| 31| 34| 40| 2| 17| 12| 27| 29| 3| 26| 24| 11| 35| 23| 37| 1| 30| 38| 19| 13| 7| 22| 43| 33| 32| 8| 36| 44| 20| 39| 41| 42| 10| 2| 2.2712447| 0| 50.813734| 0| 0| 1| 0| 2| 4| 0| 1| 1| 0| 14.452075| 1| 1| 1| 0| 15.298853| 1| 0| 3| 0| 0| 0| 37| 0| 1| 0| 2| 5| 1| 1| 0| 0| 2| 0| 0| 1| 0| 1| 0| 1|\n#> |QCY9 | 440| 14| 4| 29| 5| 33| 20| 21| 15| 6| 9| 16| 27| 40| 34| 2| 26| 13| 25| 31| 3| 23| 18| 11| 35| 24| 30| 1| 28| 37| 17| 12| 7| 22| 42| 32| 38| 8| 36| 44| 19| 39| 43| 41| 10| 1| 6.2119239| 0| 50.635772| 1| 1| 1| 0| 4| 2| 1| 1| 1| 0| 14.353207| 1| 1| 0| 0| 8.747207| 1| 2| 2| 0| 0| 1| 37| 0| 0| 1| 1| 6| 0| 0| 0| 1| 1| 0| 0| 0| 0| 1| 0| 2|\n#> |QCY10 | 445| 18| 4| 30| 5| 24| 22| 20| 14| 6| 9| 13| 34| 36| 40| 2| 29| 12| 26| 35| 3| 23| 19| 11| 28| 25| 31| 1| 27| 37| 21| 15| 7| 16| 43| 38| 33| 8| 32| 44| 17| 39| 41| 42| 10| 0| 4.0172069| 0| 53.051621| 1| 1| 0| 1| 2| 2| 1| 0| 0| 0| 11.028678| 0| 1| 0| 0| 11.926809| 0| 2| 5| 1| 1| 1| 29| 0| 0| 1| 1| 7| 2| 1| 1| 0| 1| 0| 0| 0| 0| 1| 0| 0|\n#> ...\n#> \n#> \n#> | |exptID | nBallots| ATL_16| ATL_27| ATL_14| ATL_54| ATL_87| ATL_1| ATL_26| ATL_29| ATL_6| ATL_25| ATL_93| ATL_30| ATL_88| ATL_21| ATL_10| ATL_34| ATL_7| ATL_13| ATL_9| ATL_2| ATL_11| ATL_36| ATL_31| ATL_126| ATL_18| ATL_89| ATL_19| ATL_5| ATL_90| ATL_17| ATL_32| ATL_91| ATL_23| ATL_15| ATL_28| ATL_33| ATL_3| ATL_92| ATL_4| ATL_22| ATL_8| ATL_24| ATL_35| ATL_20| m.ATL_16| m.ATL_27| m.ATL_14| m.ATL_54| m.ATL_87| m.ATL_1| m.ATL_26| m.ATL_29| m.ATL_6| m.ATL_25| m.ATL_93| m.ATL_30| m.ATL_88| m.ATL_21| m.ATL_10| m.ATL_34| m.ATL_7| m.ATL_13| m.ATL_9| m.ATL_2| m.ATL_11| m.ATL_36| m.ATL_31| m.ATL_126| m.ATL_18| m.ATL_89| m.ATL_19| m.ATL_5| m.ATL_90| m.ATL_17| m.ATL_32| m.ATL_91| m.ATL_23| m.ATL_15| m.ATL_28| m.ATL_33| m.ATL_3| m.ATL_92| m.ATL_4| m.ATL_22| m.ATL_8| m.ATL_24| m.ATL_35| m.ATL_20|\n#> |:---|:------|--------:|------:|------:|------:|------:|------:|-----:|------:|------:|-----:|------:|------:|------:|------:|------:|------:|------:|-----:|------:|-----:|-----:|------:|------:|------:|-------:|------:|------:|------:|-----:|------:|------:|------:|------:|------:|------:|------:|------:|-----:|------:|-----:|------:|-----:|------:|------:|------:|--------:|----------:|--------:|----------:|--------:|-------:|--------:|--------:|-------:|--------:|--------:|--------:|--------:|--------:|---------:|--------:|-------:|--------:|-------:|---------:|--------:|--------:|--------:|---------:|--------:|--------:|--------:|-------:|--------:|--------:|--------:|--------:|--------:|--------:|--------:|--------:|-------:|--------:|-------:|--------:|-------:|--------:|--------:|--------:|\n#> |135 |QCY135 | 430| 17| 5| 27| 4| 23| 19| 21| 15| 7| 8| 14| 39| 29| 33| 2| 22| 12| 26| 32| 3| 24| 30| 11| 31| 25| 35| 1| 28| 36| 16| 13| 6| 20| 43| 41| 37| 9| 34| 44| 18| 38| 40| 42| 10| 1| 51.4015618| 0| 0.8539775| 1| 0| 0| 0| 6| 1| 1| 0| 0| 0| 4.000000| 0| 0| 0| 0| 2.142816| 0| 0| 2| 2| 2| 0| 30| 1| 0| 1| 1| 1| 2| 1| 1| 1| 1| 0| 0| 1| 0| 0| 0| 3|\n#> |136 |QCY136 | 435| 17| 5| 37| 4| 32| 20| 19| 15| 7| 8| 14| 39| 28| 35| 3| 23| 11| 25| 34| 2| 36| 33| 12| 22| 24| 27| 1| 26| 40| 16| 13| 6| 21| 43| 30| 31| 9| 29| 44| 18| 38| 41| 42| 10| 2| 49.7141429| 1| 5.6154615| 0| 0| 0| 0| 3| 2| 2| 0| 0| 0| 1.292797| 1| 0| 2| 0| 2.000000| 0| 0| 2| 1| 0| 0| 34| 1| 0| 1| 1| 1| 1| 1| 0| 0| 2| 0| 0| 1| 0| 1| 0| 1|\n#> |137 |QCY137 | 440| 13| 5| 39| 4| 27| 19| 20| 16| 7| 9| 14| 34| 29| 35| 2| 28| 11| 25| 31| 3| 24| 22| 12| 26| 23| 37| 1| 30| 38| 17| 15| 6| 21| 43| 33| 32| 8| 36| 44| 18| 40| 41| 42| 10| 1| 50.7095484| 1| 2.7043548| 1| 1| 0| 1| 5| 3| 0| 1| 0| 0| 4.000000| 0| 0| 0| 0| 4.069522| 0| 2| 3| 0| 0| 0| 31| 1| 0| 1| 1| 1| 0| 1| 0| 0| 4| 0| 0| 1| 0| 1| 0| 1|\n#> |138 |QCY138 | 445| 18| 4| 28| 5| 24| 19| 20| 13| 6| 10| 15| 35| 40| 39| 2| 30| 12| 27| 34| 3| 25| 21| 11| 26| 23| 31| 1| 29| 36| 17| 14| 7| 22| 43| 33| 37| 8| 32| 44| 16| 38| 41| 42| 9| 2| 1.0170114| 0| 55.0396932| 1| 1| 0| 0| 3| 1| 2| 1| 0| 0| 13.045364| 0| 2| 0| 0| 13.473490| 0| 1| 2| 1| 0| 1| 30| 1| 0| 0| 1| 8| 1| 1| 0| 1| 1| 0| 0| 0| 0| 1| 0| 0|\n#> |139 |QCY139 | 450| 17| 4| 26| 5| 28| 21| 19| 14| 7| 8| 15| 37| 32| 38| 2| 18| 12| 29| 33| 3| 25| 27| 10| 23| 24| 31| 1| 30| 41| 22| 13| 6| 16| 42| 35| 36| 11| 34| 44| 20| 39| 40| 43| 9| 0| 1.1086413| 0| 55.1520978| 1| 1| 0| 0| 4| 5| 0| 1| 1| 1| 10.043456| 1| 1| 0| 0| 13.080748| 2| 0| 1| 2| 0| 0| 31| 0| 0| 0| 3| 2| 3| 1| 0| 0| 1| 0| 0| 0| 1| 0| 1| 1|\n#> |140 |QCY140 | 455| 14| 4| 29| 5| 25| 20| 19| 16| 6| 9| 15| 39| 34| 40| 2| 28| 12| 27| 31| 3| 24| 21| 11| 26| 23| 35| 1| 30| 37| 18| 13| 7| 22| 43| 32| 33| 8| 36| 44| 17| 38| 41| 42| 10| 1| 6.1105053| 0| 52.4972737| 0| 0| 0| 3| 1| 4| 1| 0| 1| 0| 12.331516| 0| 2| 0| 0| 14.083862| 0| 1| 2| 1| 0| 0| 37| 1| 1| 2| 1| 9| 1| 1| 0| 0| 1| 0| 0| 0| 0| 1| 0| 1|\n#> |141 |QCY141 | 460| 15| 5| 30| 4| 25| 19| 21| 17| 7| 8| 13| 37| 32| 38| 2| 28| 12| 27| 33| 3| 24| 20| 11| 26| 23| 31| 1| 29| 39| 22| 14| 6| 16| 43| 35| 36| 9| 34| 44| 18| 40| 41| 42| 10| 0| 54.3828511| 0| 1.8085745| 0| 0| 0| 1| 2| 1| 1| 1| 1| 0| 4.968096| 0| 2| 0| 0| 3.312717| 0| 2| 1| 1| 0| 0| 29| 1| 1| 1| 1| 2| 1| 1| 0| 0| 2| 0| 0| 3| 0| 1| 0| 3|\n#> |142 |QCY142 | 465| 17| 5| 29| 4| 25| 19| 22| 14| 7| 8| 13| 36| 32| 40| 2| 28| 11| 27| 37| 3| 24| 20| 15| 26| 23| 31| 1| 30| 38| 21| 12| 6| 16| 43| 34| 35| 9| 33| 44| 18| 39| 41| 42| 10| 1| 56.1275319| 0| 2.9362340| 0| 0| 1| 0| 5| 1| 0| 1| 0| 0| 4.010628| 0| 1| 0| 0| 1.178913| 0| 1| 1| 1| 0| 0| 29| 1| 1| 1| 1| 1| 0| 1| 0| 0| 2| 0| 0| 3| 0| 1| 0| 3|\n#> |143 |QCY143 | 470| 18| 4| 28| 5| 19| 20| 21| 15| 7| 8| 13| 37| 32| 38| 2| 23| 12| 27| 33| 3| 25| 30| 11| 26| 24| 31| 1| 29| 39| 16| 14| 6| 22| 43| 36| 35| 9| 34| 44| 17| 40| 41| 42| 10| 2| 1.2295306| 0| 57.2677857| 1| 1| 0| 1| 3| 1| 1| 1| 1| 0| 16.153020| 1| 2| 0| 0| 12.688118| 0| 1| 2| 2| 1| 0| 33| 0| 1| 1| 2| 0| 0| 1| 0| 0| 2| 0| 0| 0| 0| 1| 0| 2|\n#> |144 |QCY144 | 475| 18| 4| 29| 5| 26| 20| 21| 15| 7| 9| 13| 37| 32| 38| 2| 19| 12| 28| 33| 3| 24| 25| 11| 27| 23| 31| 1| 30| 39| 16| 14| 6| 22| 43| 35| 36| 8| 34| 44| 17| 40| 41| 42| 10| 1| 0.1093125| 0| 58.1275312| 0| 1| 0| 2| 8| 4| 0| 1| 1| 0| 15.072875| 1| 2| 0| 0| 13.556590| 0| 0| 3| 1| 1| 0| 30| 1| 1| 1| 2| 1| 2| 1| 0| 0| 1| 0| 0| 0| 0| 1| 0| 0|\nplot(xrHare,boxPlot=TRUE,boxPlotCutInterval=10,\n line=FALSE,facetWrap=TRUE,nResults=6)\n#> Warning: Orientation is not uniquely specified when both the x and y aesthetics are\n#> continuous. Picking default orientation 'x'.\n```\n\n $\"\"$ \n\nWe think `testFraction` would help researchers discover whether the\nsafety of the preliminary results of an STV election is significantly\naffected by its quota method. Anecdotally this seems to be the case. For\nexample, in the case of the 2016 Yale Senate election plotted above, the\nuse of a Droop quota rather than a Hare quota would decrease the\nuncertainty of the decision for the fourth seat as the count nears\ncompletion. After nearly all ballots are counted, ATL_54 is clearly\nleading ATL_27 if the Droop quota is employed. See below.\n\n``` r\nload(SaveVote)\nxrDroop <- \n testFraction(yale_ballots,arep=9,ainc=5,astart=400,\n countArgs=list(nseats=4,safety=0.0,quota.hare=FALSE))\nplot(xrDroop,boxPlot=TRUE,boxPlotCutInterval=10,\n line=FALSE,facetWrap=TRUE,nResults=6)\n```\n\n![](man/figures/yaleDroop.png)\n\nOn theoretical grounds, it seems plausible that the use of a Droop quota\nrather than a Hare quota will reduce the fluctuations in ranking as more\nballots are counted. The Droop quota is smaller than the Hare quota, so\nthe candidates in a close race will be elected in an earlier round. It\nseems likely that the count will then be completed with fewer\nvote-transfers and perhaps also with less “quasi-chaos”\n\\[@geller2005single\\].\n\nWe conjecture that the [Cambridge method of transferring\nvotes](https://opavote.com/methods/cambridge-stv-rules) will decrease\nthe safety of a count, because its transfer of entire ballots (rather\nthan fractions of ballots) seems very likely to increase the variance in\nthe results as additional ballots are counted.\n\nWe suggest that an election count might be considered unsafe – for\npurposes of declaring a preliminary result after a fraction of ballots\nis counted – if its results show significant variance when a random\nsample of size $n-\\sqrt{n}$ of the $n$ ballots is counted. However we\nleave this determination to future researchers, because we believe\nsafety is only one of many considerations to be considered when\ndesigning and administering an STV election process.\n\n## testAdditions\n\n[testAdditions](https://cthombor.github.io/SafeVote/reference/testAdditions)\ncan be used to assess the sensitivity of an STV election to a\ntactical-voting strategy of “plumping” for a favoured candidate. For\nexample, we find it takes only two “plumping” ballots to shift\n“Strawberries” from third place to second place in the\n[food_election](https://cthombor.github.io/SafeVote/reference/food_election)\ndataset. Note that in this test we have set the `safety` parameter of\nthe [stv](https://cthombor.github.io/SafeVote/reference/stv)\nballot-counting method to zero, so that the output of\n[testAdditions](https://cthombor.github.io/SafeVote/reference/testAdditions)\nreveals a complete ranking of the candidates unless there is an exact\ntie.\n\n``` r\nload(SaveVote)\ntestAdditions(food_election, arep = 2, favoured = \"Strawberries\", \n countArgs = list(safety = 0))\n#> \n#> Adding up to 2 stv ballots = ( 3 5 4 1 2 )\n#> Testing progress: 1, 2\n#> \n#> Results of testAdditions at 2022-12-26 08:25:22\n#> \n#> Dataset = food_election, countMethod = stv, rankMethod = safeRank\n#> \n#> | | safety|\n#> |:---------|------:|\n#> |countArgs | 0|\n#> \n#> \n#> | | ainc| arep| tacticalBallot|\n#> |:------------|----:|----:|----------------------------------------------------------------------:|\n#> |otherFactors | 1| 2| c(Oranges = 3, Pears = 5, Chocolate = 4, Strawberries = 1, Sweets = 2)|\n#> \n#> Experiment ID, number of ballots in simulated election, ranks, winning margins:\n#> \n#> |exptID | nBallots| Oranges| Pears| Chocolate| Strawberries| Sweets| m.Oranges| m.Pears| m.Chocolate| m.Strawberries| m.Sweets|\n#> |:------|--------:|-------:|-----:|---------:|------------:|------:|---------:|-------:|-----------:|--------------:|---------:|\n#> |SBK0 | 20| 2| 5| 1| 3| 4| 1.4451111| 2| 8| 1.7774444| 0.7774444|\n#> |SBK1 | 21| 2| 5| 1| 3| 4| 0.6673333| 2| 8| 2.6663333| 0.6663333|\n#> |SBK2 | 22| 3| 5| 1| 2| 4| 3.4447778| 2| 8| 0.1104444| 0.5552222|\n```\n\n## testDeletions\n\n[testDeletions](https://cthombor.github.io/SafeVote/reference/testDeletions)\ndeletes ballots sequentially from the ballot box, counting after each\ndeletion. When its results are plotted in inverse order of collection\n(i.e. in *increasing* order of the number of ballots $n$) we see one\npossible evolution of the preliminary results of an election in which\nballots are counted in a randomised order (without replacement) from the\nballot box. Note that a plot of the results of\n[testFraction](https://cthombor.github.io/SafeVote/reference/testFraction)\nhas a similar appearance, however the ballot boxes counted in\n[testFraction](https://cthombor.github.io/SafeVote/reference/testFraction)\nare independently sampled (“bootstrapped”) from the full dataset of\nballots.\n\n``` r\nload(SaveVote)\nxr <- \n testDeletions(dublin_west,dinc=25,dstart=29988,quiet=FALSE,\n countArgs=list(safety=0.0,nseats=3))\nsave(xr,file=\"../s0di25ns3.rdata\")\nplot(xr,title=\"testDeletions, file = s0di25ns3\")\n```\n\n![](man/figures/s0di25ns3.png)\n\nIn the plots above, the “adjusted rank” of a candidate is their ranking\n$r$ plus their scaled margin of victory. Following the usual convention,\nthe most-popular candidate is at rank 1. Accordingly, we invert the\n$y$-axis so that the rank-1 candidate is visually dominant. Our default\nscaling of a margin of victory $m$ is $e^{-cm/\\sqrt{n}}$. This\nexponential scaling makes it possible to see small differences in\nvote-counts in the small margins of victory which affect the safety of\nan election result. Note that a very small margin of victory adds almost\na whole unit to the candidate’s rank. We introduce the scaling factor\n$c/\\sqrt{n}$ into the exponent as a rough-cut estimate of the standard\ndeviation of the standard deviation of a victory margin in an election\nwith $n$ ballots. A candidate whose margin of victory is a multiple of\n$\\sqrt{n}$ thus has a very small adjustment to their rank in our plots.\nOur margin-scaling parameter $c$ has the default value of 1, and may be\nadjusted using the parameter `cMargin` of\n[plot.SafeVote](https://cthombor.github.io/SafeVote/reference/plot.SafeVote.stv).\n\nIn the sample\n[testDeletions](https://cthombor.github.io/SafeVote/reference/testDeletions)\nplot above, Morrissey’s adjusted rank is visually very close to\nMcDonald’s adjusted rank when most of the ballots have been counted.\nThis suggests to us that their relative standing in this election is\nsensitive to small variations in voter behaviour.\n\nOne of our primary motivations for developing this package was its\npossible future use in ranking candidates for the party list of the\nGreen Party of Aotearoa New Zealand. To date, we have found no academic\nstudy of methods for ranking candidates using preferential-voting\nballots, making it quite possibly a greenfield problem in social-choice\nresearch. In private communication of November 2022, Prof. Nicolaus\nTideman had offered some advice on our initial proposal for ranking with\na Condorcet score. However, because diversity is one of the explicit\n[values](https://www.greens.org.nz/our_values) of this party, a ranking\nthat is derived from an STV-style ballot-counting process would seem\nmuch more appropriate for use by the NZ Greens than any ranking that is\nderived from a Condorcet scoring process. Indeed, the NZ Greens are\ncurrently using a modification of Meek’s STV algorithm, enshrined in\n[Schedule 1A of Local Electoral Regulations\n2001](https://www.legislation.govt.nz/regulation/public/2001/0145/latest/DLM57125.html),\nto form its party list. Under its current rules, the NZ Greens rely on a\ndelegated assembly to form an initial list. In a possible future in\nwhich the NZ Greens have dozens of elected MPs, the size of this\nassembly may have to be increased if the sitting MPs seeking re-election\nare to be safely ranked against each other, and against other candidates\nin the pool.\n\nWe wonder: are $n$ preferential ballots generally sufficient, in\nreal-world elections, to safely rank-order $\\sqrt{n}$ candidates? This\npackage is, we hope, a first step toward answering this question.","jobInfo":{"package":"SafeVote","version":"1.0.2","parsingStatus":"success","parserVersion":2,"parsedAt":"2026-03-23T10:30:39+0000"}}

Description

Usage

Value

Arguments