Sleuth2 (version 1.0-3)

case1502: Global Warming

Description

The data are the temperatures (in degrees Celsius) averaged for the northern hemisphere over a full year, for years 1880 to 1987. The 108-year average temperature has been subtracted, so each observation is the temperature difference from the series average.

Usage

case1502

source

Ramsey, F.L. and Schafer, D.W. (2002). The Statistical Sleuth: A Course in Methods of Data Analysis (2nd ed), Duxbury.

References

Jones, P.D. (1988). Hemispheric Surface Air Temperature Variations---Recent Trends Plus an Update to 1987, Journal of Climatology 1: 654--660.

Examples

str(case1502)

# Residuals from regression fit, ignoring autocorrelation
resids <- lm(Temp ~ Year, case1502)$res
# PACF plot shows evidence of 1st order auto correlation
acf(resids,type="partial")
# 1st autocorrelation coef.
acorr1 <- acf(resids,type="correlation",plot=FALSE)$acf[2] 

# Fit regression with filtered response and explanatory variables:
n <- length(case1502$Temp)
y <- with(case1502, Temp [2:n] - acorr1* Temp [1:(n-1)])
x <- with(case1502, Year [2:n] - acorr1* Year [1:(n-1)])
fit <- lm(y ~ x)
summary(fit)  # Interpret coefficient of x as coefficient of Year