SpecsVerification (version 0.4-1)

EnsBrier: Brier Score for ensemble forecasts.

Description

Calculate the Brier Score for ensemble forecasts and their corresponding observations

Usage

EnsBrier(ens, obs, tau)

Arguments

ens

N*K matrix. N cases of a K-member ensemble forecast.

obs

vector of length N. The corresponding verifying observations.

tau

The threshold value whose exceedance defines the binary event. If ensemble members and observations are coded as 0's and 1's already, setting tau=0.5 (the default) will produce the desired result.

Value

The function returns a vector of length N with the individual score values of the N ensemble forecasts.

References

Brier, G. (1950). Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Monthly Weather Review. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1950)078<0001:vofeit>2.0.CO;2

Examples

  # Example:
  ens <- matrix(rnorm(500),100,5)
  obs <- rnorm(100)
  mean(EnsBrier(ens, obs, tau=1))