SpecsVerification (version 0.4-1)

EnsRps: Ranked Probability Score for ensemble forecasts.

Description

Calculate the Ranked Probability Score for ensemble forecasts and their corresponding observations

Usage

EnsRps(ens, obs)

Arguments

ens

N*K matrix. ens[i,j] is the number of ensemble members that predict category j at time i.

obs

N*K matrix. obs[i,j] = 1 if category j is observed at time i, 0 otherwise.

Value

The function returns a vector of length N with the individual score values of the N ensemble forecasts.

References

Epstein E.S. (1969): A Scoring System for Probability Forecasts of Ranked Categories. Journal of Applied Meteorology. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0450(1969)008<0985:assfpf>2.0.CO;2

Examples

  # Example:
  ens <- matrix(c(1,2,3, 2,2,2), byrow=TRUE, nrow=2)
  obs <- matrix(c(0,0,1, 0,1,0), byrow=TRUE, nrow=2)
  EnsRps(ens,obs)