cnrm.nino34.mp: Example Data of Polychotomous Observations and Probabilistic Forecasts
Description
Polychotomous observations with four categories (obsv) and discrete
probabilistic forecasts (fcst) of the Nino-3.4 index for January 1961-2000.
The forecast data stem from model runs initialized using data for the
preceding August 1960-1999. Definition of the four observation "categories":
(1) obsv < 26 C; (2) obsv in [26 C,27 C[; (3) obsv in [27 C,28 C[; (4) obsv
>= 28 C. The probabilistic forecasts have been estimated by taking the
fraction of ensemble members falling into each of the four categories.Format
The format is: List of 3 \$ years: int [1:40] 1961 1962 1963
1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 ... \$ obsv : num [1:40] 2 2 1 3 1 3 2
1 3 3 ... \$ fcst : num [1:40, 1:4] 0.000 0.222 0.000 0.000 0.889 ...Details
The forecast data are from the coupled ocean-atmosphere model of the Centre
National de Recherches Meteorologiques (CNRM) of Meteo France and were
generated as part of the "Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble
System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (DEMETER)" project (Palmer et
al. 2004). Note that also the examples presented in the 2AFC paper by Mason
and Weigel (2009) are based on these data.References
Palmer, T.N. and Coauthors, 2004: Development of a European
ensemble system for seasonal to inter-annual prediction (DEMETER). Bull.
Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 853-872. Mason, S.J. and A.P. Weigel, 2009: A
generic forecast verification framework for administrative purposes. Mon.
Wea. Rev., 137, 331-349