afc (version 1.4.0)

rank.ensembles: Rank Ensembles

Description

Routine to rank a set of given ensemble forecasts according to their "value"

Usage

rank.ensembles(fcst)

Arguments

fcst

two-dimensional array with ensemble forecasts; dim(fcst)[1] = number of ensemble forecasts; dim(fcst)[2] = number of ensemble members

Value

ranks

vector with the ranks of the ensemble forecasts

Details

This routine ranks a set of ensemble forecasts according to their "value". The higher the "value" of an ensemble forecasts, the higher the rank. The following principle is applied: Assume two ensembles A and B are to be ranked. Without loss of generality, we define A>B if the probability of a random ensemble member of A being larger than a random ensemble member of B exceeds 0.5. This probability is calculated by a 2AFC-like approach based on Eq. 8 of Mason and Weigel (2009). By pairwise comparison of all ensembles, the final ranking is obtained.

References

S.J. Mason and A.P. Weigel, 2009. A generic verification framework for administrative purposes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 331-349

See Also

afc.de afc.me afc.ce afc

Examples

  #Load a set of ensemble forecasts
  data(cnrm.nino34.ce)
  fcst = cnrm.nino34.ce$fcst

  #Rank ensemble forecasts
  rank.ensembles(fcst)