geoMeanCalc

Calculate the geometric mean of a vector of forecasts. We handle 0s by
replacing them with the qth quantile of the non-zero forecasts.

Provides several methods for aggregating probabilistic forecasts. You have a group of
people who have made probabilistic forecasts for the same event. You want to take advantage of
the "wisdom of the crowd" and combine these forecasts in some sensible way. This package
provides implementations of several strategies, including geometric mean of odds, an extremized
aggregate (Neyman, Roughgarden (2021) <doi:10.1145/3490486.3538243>), and "high-density trimmed
mean" (Powell et al. (2022) <doi:10.1037/dec0000191>).

Molly Hickman

aggutils

Utilities for Aggregating Probabilistic Forecasts

Zach Jacobs

geoMeanCalc function

<dl><dt>x</dt>
<dd>Vector of forecasts in 0 to 100 range (%)</dd>
<dt>q</dt>
<dd>The quantile to use for replacing 0s (between 0 and 1)</dd></dl>

Arguments

Geometric Mean — geoMeanCalc

<dl>

<dt>x</dt>
<dd>Vector of forecasts in 0 to 100 range (%)</dd>


<dt>q</dt>
<dd>The quantile to use for replacing 0s (between 0 and 1)</dd>

</dl>

geoMeanCalc: Geometric Mean

Description

Usage

Value

Arguments