geoMeanOfOddsCalc

Convert probabilities to odds, and calculate the geometric mean of the
odds. We handle 0s by replacing them with the qth quantile of the non-zero
forecasts, before converting.

Provides several methods for aggregating probabilistic forecasts. You have a group of
people who have made probabilistic forecasts for the same event. You want to take advantage of
the "wisdom of the crowd" and combine these forecasts in some sensible way. This package
provides implementations of several strategies, including geometric mean of odds, an extremized
aggregate (Neyman, Roughgarden (2021) <doi:10.1145/3490486.3538243>), and "high-density trimmed
mean" (Powell et al. (2022) <doi:10.1037/dec0000191>).

Molly Hickman

aggutils

Utilities for Aggregating Probabilistic Forecasts

Zach Jacobs

geoMeanOfOddsCalc function

<dl><dt>x</dt>
<dd>A vector of forecasts (probabilities! unless odds = TRUE)</dd>
<dt>q</dt>
<dd>The quantile to use for replacing 0s (between 0 and 1)</dd>
<dt>odds</dt>
<dd>Whether x is already in odds form (TRUE) or probabilities</dd></dl>

Arguments

Geometric Mean of Odds — geoMeanOfOddsCalc

<dl>

<dt>x</dt>
<dd>A vector of forecasts (probabilities! unless odds = TRUE)</dd>


<dt>q</dt>
<dd>The quantile to use for replacing 0s (between 0 and 1)</dd>


<dt>odds</dt>
<dd>Whether x is already in odds form (TRUE) or probabilities</dd>

</dl>

geoMeanOfOddsCalc: Geometric Mean of Odds

Description

Usage

Value

Arguments