soften_mean

If the mean is &gt; .5, trim the top trim%; if &lt; .5, the bottom
trim%. Return the new mean (i.e. soften the mean).

Provides several methods for aggregating probabilistic forecasts. You have a group of
people who have made probabilistic forecasts for the same event. You want to take advantage of
the "wisdom of the crowd" and combine these forecasts in some sensible way. This package
provides implementations of several strategies, including geometric mean of odds, an extremized
aggregate (Neyman, Roughgarden (2021) <doi:10.1145/3490486.3538243>), and "high-density trimmed
mean" (Powell et al. (2022) <doi:10.1037/dec0000191>).

Molly Hickman

aggutils

Utilities for Aggregating Probabilistic Forecasts

Zach Jacobs

soften_mean function

<dl><dt>x</dt>
<dd>Vector of forecasts in 0 to 100 range (%)</dd>
<dt>p</dt>
<dd>The proportion of forecasts to trim from each end (between 0
and 1)</dd></dl>

Arguments

Soften the mean. — soften_mean

<dl>

<dt>x</dt>
<dd>Vector of forecasts in 0 to 100 range (%)</dd>


<dt>p</dt>
<dd>The proportion of forecasts to trim from each end (between 0
and 1)</dd>

</dl>

soften_mean: Soften the mean.

Description

Usage

Value

Arguments