astsa (version 2.4)

USpop20: U.S. Population - 1900 to 2020

Description

U.S. Population by official census, every ten years from 1900 to 2020, in millions.

Format

The format is: Time-Series [1:13] from 1900 to 2020: 76.2 92.2 106 122.8 132.2 ...

Details

The census from 2020 is included in this data set, but the results from 2020 are questionable. By many accounts, it was a nightmare (https://www.npr.org/2022/01/15/1073338121/2020-census-interference-trump) due to the COVID-19 pandemic coupled with the fact that the Census Bureau is in the Department of Commerce, and its head is appointed by and reports directly to the POTUS, who at the time was DJ tRump: "Historians rank Trump among worst presidents in US history ... " (https://www.businessinsider.com/historians-rank-trump-among-worst-presidents-us-history-c-span-2021-6).

The data without the 2020 census is in USpop. Note that the two data files differ a bit, presumably because they are revised ad infinitum. Both data sets were obtained from the Census Bureau's website.

References

You can find demonstrations of astsa capabilities at FUN WITH ASTSA.

The most recent version of the package can be found at https://github.com/nickpoison/astsa/.

In addition, the News and ChangeLog files are at https://github.com/nickpoison/astsa/blob/master/NEWS.md.

The webpages for the texts and some help on using R for time series analysis can be found at https://nickpoison.github.io/.

See Also

USpop

Examples

# the regression
t    = time(USpop20) - 1960
reg  = lm( USpop20~ poly(t, 10, raw=TRUE) )

# the prediction curve
b    = as.vector(coef(reg))
t    = 1900:2044
X    = outer(t - 1960, 0:10, FUN = "^")
pred = X %*% b

# the plot
tsplot(t, pred, ylab="Population", xlab='Year', cex.main=1, col=4,
        main="U.S. Population by Official Census")
points(time(USpop20), USpop20, pch=21, bg=rainbow(13), cex=1.25)
mtext(bquote('\u00D7'~10^6), side=2, line=1.5, adj=1, cex=.8)