baselinenowcast (version 0.2.0)

allocate_reference_times: Allocate training volume based on combination of defaults and user-specified values for training volume for delay and uncertainty estimation.

Description

Given the reporting triangle and optionally the user-specified scale factor on the max delay to be used as total reference times and the proportion of those reference times to be used for delay estimation, allocate reference times to the number used for delay estimation and the number used as retrospective nowcasts for uncertainty estimation.

This function implements an algorithm which:

• if the specified number of reference times (scale_factor x max delay) is less than or equal to the number of reference times available in the reporting triangle, split reference times between delay and uncertainty according to prop_delay, ensuring that the minimum requirements for delay and uncertainty estimation are met.

• if the specified number of reference times is greater than the number of reference times available in the reporting triangle, use all the reference times available and satisfy the minimum requirement for delay estimation and then split the remainder according to the specified prop_delay, ensuring that the minimum reference times for delay and uncertainty estimation are fulfilled.

• the function errors if the minimum requirements for delay and uncertainty estimation are not possible from the number of reference times in the reporting triangle.

Usage

allocate_reference_times(
  reporting_triangle,
  scale_factor = 3,
  prop_delay = 0.5,
  n_min_retro_nowcasts = 2,
  validate = TRUE
)

Value

list of n_history_delay and n_retrospective_nowcasts

Arguments

reporting_triangle

A reporting_triangle object with rows representing reference times and columns representing delays. Can be a reporting matrix or incomplete reporting matrix. Can also be a ragged reporting triangle, where multiple columns are reported for the same row (e.g., weekly reporting of daily data).

scale_factor

Numeric value indicating the multiplicative factor on the maximum delay to be used for estimation of delay and uncertainty. Default is 3.

prop_delay

Numeric value <1 indicating what proportion of all reference times in the reporting triangle to be used for delay estimation. Default is 0.5.

n_min_retro_nowcasts

Integer indicating the minimum number of reference times needed for uncertainty estimation. Default is 2.

validate

Logical. If TRUE (default), validates the object. Set to FALSE only when called from functions that already validated.

See Also

High-level workflow wrapper functions estimate_and_apply_delay(), estimate_and_apply_delays(), estimate_and_apply_uncertainty(), estimate_uncertainty_retro()

Examples

# Create a reporting triangle from package data
data_as_of <- syn_nssp_df[syn_nssp_df$report_date <= "2026-04-01", ]
rep_tri <- as_reporting_triangle(data_as_of) |>
  truncate_to_delay(max_delay = 25)

# Use the defaults (scale_factor = 3, prop_delay = 0.5)
ref_time_allocation_default <- allocate_reference_times(rep_tri)
ref_time_allocation_default

# Modify to use less volume and redistribute
ref_time_allocation_alt <- allocate_reference_times(
  reporting_triangle = rep_tri,
  scale_factor = 2,
  prop_delay = 0.6
)
ref_time_allocation_alt