Deduction of sudden rainstorm scenarios: integrating decision makers' emotions, dynamic Bayesian network and DS evidence theory.
An object of class bn.fit. Refer to the documentation of bnlearn for details.
A discrete Bayesian network to simulate the dynamic change process of scenario deduction. Probabilities were given within the referenced paper. The vertices are:
Activate the flood prevention emergency plan; organize emergency rescue teams to garrison key safety points and increase the intensity of inspections; each site is equipped with sufficient special flood prevention materials and equipment (Effective, Void);
Improve the level of flood prevention emergency response; organize the maintenance of houses; restrict people’s travel; clean up the water outlet in time; and do a good job in popularizing flood prevention emergency measures (Effective, Void);
Vigorous dredging of drainage channels, all personnel involved in flood control (Effective, Void);
Strengthen inspections and inspections of rivers, reservoirs, geological disasters, urban infrastructure, etc.; force all factories with hidden dangers (enterprises that may have water inlets and hot furnaces, etc.) to stop work and production (Effective, Void);
Enterprises continue to close down and add infrastructure (Effective, Void);
Arrange professional personnel to guide the dangerous situation of the reservoir on the spot; excavate the drainage trough as soon as possible to reduce the water level, add hydrological stations, and strengthen supervision and early warning (Effective, Void);
Extensive excavation of emergency drainage channels; transfer of personnel in hazardous areas; and increase of emergency equipment and medical teams (Effective, Void);
Accelerate the transfer of personnel from disaster areas, add high-tech rescue equipment (Effective,Void);
Rainstorm (True, False);
Precipitation continues to increase (True, False);
The ground area is reduced by water (True, False);
The weather continued to deteriorate and heavy rainstorms occurred (True, False);
Secondary disasters occur (True, False);
Heavy rains trigger small floods (True, False);
Heavy rains triggered large flooding (True, False);
Floods trigger landslides (True, False);
All stagnant water is discharged (True, False);
The flood disappeared (True, False);
The danger was completely controlled and the rainstorm disappeared (True, False);
Optimistic/pessimistic (Optimism, Gloomy);
Optimistic/pessimistic (Optimism, Gloomy);
Optimistic/pessimistic (Optimism, Gloomy);
Optimistic/pessimistic (Optimism, Gloomy);
Optimistic/pessimistic (Optimism, Gloomy);
Optimistic/pessimistic (Optimism, Gloomy);
Optimistic/pessimistic (Optimism, Gloomy);
Optimistic/pessimistic (Optimism, Gloomy);
The normal living order of the people, and make all the preparations for the deterioration of heavy rains (Attain, Miss);
Ensure that all the water outlets are unblocked, and all the rest are protected at home except for the necessary travel personnel (Attain, Miss);
Water in the ground area is accelerating and decreasing (Attain, Miss);
Ensure that all hidden factories are shut down, avoid other accidents such as explosions, and ensure that all infrastructure is operating normally (Attain, Miss);
The whole society is subordinate to the unified organization of the state (Attain, Miss);
Ensures reservoir danger is under control and casualties continue to decrease (Attain, Miss);
Ensure that the water level is controlled, all personnel in the danger area are evacuated, and there is no increase in the number of casualties (Attain, Miss);
The supply of medical supplies is timely, the efficiency of search and rescue is guaranteed, and the number of casualties is no longer increasing (Attain, Miss);
Xie, X., Tian, Y., & Wei, G. (2023). Deduction of sudden rainstorm scenarios: integrating decision makers' emotions, dynamic Bayesian network and DS evidence theory. Natural Hazards, 116(3), 2935-2955.