plot.ForecastsPANEL

Plots of fitted values of dependent variables including their 
median and percentiles.

Provides Bayesian estimation and forecasting of dynamic panel data using
Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregressions with hierarchical prior distributions.
The models include country-specific VARs that share a global prior
distribution that extend the model by Jarociński (2010) <doi:10.1002/jae.1082>.
Under this prior expected value, each country's system follows
a global VAR with country-invariant parameters. Further flexibility is
provided by the hierarchical prior structure that retains the Minnesota prior
interpretation for the global VAR and features estimated prior covariance
matrices, shrinkage, and persistence levels. Bayesian forecasting is developed
for models including exogenous variables, allowing conditional forecasts given
the future trajectories of some variables and restricted forecasts assuring
that rates are forecasted to stay positive and less than 100. The package
implements the model specification, estimation, and forecasting routines,
facilitating coherent workflows and reproducibility. It also includes automated
pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting and computation of forecasting performance
measures. Beautiful plots,
informative summary functions, and extensive documentation complement all
this. An extraordinary computational speed is achieved thanks to employing
frontier econometric and numerical techniques and algorithms written in 'C++'.
The 'bpvars' package is aligned regarding objects, workflows, and code
structure with the 'R' packages 'bsvars' by
Woźniak (2024) <doi:10.32614/CRAN.package.bsvars> and 'bsvarSIGNs' by
Wang & Woźniak (2025) <doi:10.32614/CRAN.package.bsvarSIGNs>, and they
constitute an integrated toolset. Copyright: 2025 International Labour
Organization.

Tomasz Woźniak

bpvars

Forecasting with Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregressions

Miguel Sanchez-Martinez

International Labour Organization 

plot.ForecastsPANEL function

<dl><dt>x</dt>
<dd>an object of class <code>ForecastsPANEL</code> obtained using the
<code>forecast()</code> function containing posterior draws of 
fitted values of dependent variables.</dd>
<dt>which_c</dt>
<dd>a positive integer or a character string specifying the country 
for which the forecast should be plotted.</dd>
<dt>probability</dt>
<dd>a parameter determining the interval to be plotted. The 
interval stretches from the <code>0.5 * (1 - probability)</code> to 
<code>1 - 0.5 * (1 - probability)</code> percentile of the posterior distribution.</dd>
<dt>data_in_plot</dt>
<dd>a fraction value in the range (0, 1) determining how many
of the last observations in the data should be plotted with the forecasts.</dd>
<dt>col</dt>
<dd>a colour of the plot line and the ribbon</dd>
<dt>main</dt>
<dd>an alternative main title for the plot</dd>
<dt>xlab</dt>
<dd>an alternative x-axis label for the plot</dd>
<dt>mar.multi</dt>
<dd>the default <code>mar</code> argument setting in <code><a href="/link/graphics%3A%3Apar?package=bpvars&version=1.0" data-mini-rdoc="bpvars::graphics::par">graphics::par</a></code>. Modify with care!</dd>
<dt>oma.multi</dt>
<dd>the default <code>oma</code> argument setting in <code><a href="/link/graphics%3A%3Apar?package=bpvars&version=1.0" data-mini-rdoc="bpvars::graphics::par">graphics::par</a></code>. Modify with care!</dd>
<dt>...</dt>
<dd>additional arguments affecting the summary produced.</dd></dl>

Arguments

Tomasz Woźniak <a href="/link/wozniak.tom%40pm.me?package=bpvars&version=1.0" data-mini-rdoc="bpvars::wozniak.tom@pm.me">wozniak.tom@pm.me</a>

Author

Plots fitted values of dependent variables — plot.ForecastsPANEL

<dl>

<dt>x</dt>
<dd>an object of class <code>ForecastsPANEL</code> obtained using the
<code>forecast()</code> function containing posterior draws of 
fitted values of dependent variables.</dd>


<dt>which_c</dt>
<dd>a positive integer or a character string specifying the country 
for which the forecast should be plotted.</dd>


<dt>probability</dt>
<dd>a parameter determining the interval to be plotted. The 
interval stretches from the <code>0.5 * (1 - probability)</code> to 
<code>1 - 0.5 * (1 - probability)</code> percentile of the posterior distribution.</dd>


<dt>data_in_plot</dt>
<dd>a fraction value in the range (0, 1) determining how many
of the last observations in the data should be plotted with the forecasts.</dd>


<dt>col</dt>
<dd>a colour of the plot line and the ribbon</dd>


<dt>main</dt>
<dd>an alternative main title for the plot</dd>


<dt>xlab</dt>
<dd>an alternative x-axis label for the plot</dd>


<dt>mar.multi</dt>
<dd>the default <code>mar</code> argument setting in <code><a href='https://rdrr.io/r/graphics/par.html'>graphics::par</a></code>. Modify with care!</dd>


<dt>oma.multi</dt>
<dd>the default <code>oma</code> argument setting in <code><a href='https://rdrr.io/r/graphics/par.html'>graphics::par</a></code>. Modify with care!</dd>


<dt>...</dt>
<dd>additional arguments affecting the summary produced.</dd>

</dl>

Tomasz Woźniak <a href='mailto:wozniak.tom@pm.me'>wozniak.tom@pm.me</a>

plot.ForecastsPANEL: Plots fitted values of dependent variables

Description

Usage

Arguments

Author

See Also

Examples