This function creates a conformal regressor that accounts for increasing uncertainty at longer forecast horizons. It uses separate nonconformity score distributions for each horizon h=1,2,3,..., resulting in prediction intervals that naturally widen as the forecast horizon increases (trumpet-shaped intervals).
conformalRegressorByHorizon(horizon_errors)A conformalRegressorByHorizon object containing:
List of sorted nonconformity scores for each horizon
Maximum calibrated horizon
Number of calibration samples per horizon
A named list where each element contains sorted
absolute errors for that horizon. Names should be "h1", "h2", etc.
This is typically produced by calibrate_horizon_scores().
Resul Akay
Boström, H., 2022. crepes: a Python Package for Generating Conformal Regressors and Predictive Systems. In Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction and Applications. PMLR, 179.
Stankeviciute, K., Alaa, A. M., & van der Schaar, M., 2021. Conformal Time-series Forecasting. NeurIPS 2021.