b <- initialize_graph(graph_from_literal(X -+ Y, Ur -+ X, Ur -+ Y))
obj <- analyze_graph(b, constraints = NULL, effectt = "p{Y(X = 1) = 1} - p{Y(X = 0) = 1}")
bounds <- optimize_effect_2(obj)
simulate_bounds(obj, bounds, nsim = 5)
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