hc_predict_subnat

Use model to run predictions. Predictions can be produced for a
single input geography, or multiple disaggregated geographies.

internal

Tools for producing climate-health indicators and supporting
official statistics from health and climate data. Implements analytical
workflows for temperature-related mortality, wildfire smoke exposure,
air pollution, suicides related to extreme heat, malaria, and
diarrhoeal disease outcomes, with utilities for descriptive statistics, model
validation, attributable fraction and attributable number estimation,
relative risk estimation, minimum mortality temperature estimation,
and plotting for reporting. These six indicators are endorsed by
the United Nations Statistical Commission for inclusion in the
Global Set of Environment and Climate Change Statistics.
Implemented methods include distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM),
quasi-Poisson time-series regression, case-crossover analysis,
Bayesian spatio-temporal models using the Integrated Nested Laplace
Approximation ('INLA'), and multivariate meta-analysis for
sub-national estimates. The package is based on methods developed
in the Standards for Official Statistics on Climate-Health
Interactions (SOSCHI) project
<https://climate-health.officialstatistics.org>. For methodologies,
see Watkins et al. (2025) <doi:10.5281/zenodo.14865904>,
Brown et al. (2024) <doi:10.5281/zenodo.14052183>,
Pearce et al. (2024) <doi:10.5281/zenodo.14050224>,
Byukusenge et al. (2025) <doi:10.5281/zenodo.15585042>,
Dzakpa et al. (2025) <doi:10.5281/zenodo.14881886>, and
Dzakpa et al. (2025) <doi:10.5281/zenodo.14871506>.

Kenechi Omeke

climatehealth

Statistical Tools for Modelling Climate-Health Impacts

Charlie Browning

Etse Yawo Dzakpa

Gladin Jose

Matt Pearce

Ellie Watkins

Claire Hunt

Beatrice Byukusenge

Cassien Habyarimana

Venuste Nyagahakwa

Felix Scarbrough

Treesa Shaji

Bonnie Lewis

Maquines Odhiambo Sewe

Vijendra Ingole

Sean Lovell

Antony Brown

Euan Soutter

Gillian Flower

David Furley

Joe Panes

Charlotte Romaniuk

Milly Powell

Wellcome 

Office for National Statistics 

hc_predict_subnat function

<dl><dt>df_list</dt>
<dd>A list of dataframes containing daily timeseries data for a
health outcome and climate variables which may be disaggregated by a
particular geography.</dd>
<dt>var_fun</dt>
<dd>Character. Exposure function for argvar
(see dlnm::crossbasis). Defaults to 'bs'.</dd>
<dt>var_per</dt>
<dd>Vector. Internal knot positions for argvar
(see dlnm::crossbasis). Defaults to c(10, 75, 90).</dd>
<dt>var_degree</dt>
<dd>Integer. Degree of the piecewise polynomial for argvar
(see dlnm::crossbasis). Defaults to 2 (quadratic).</dd>
<dt>mintempgeog_</dt>
<dd>Vector. Percentile of minimum mortality temperature for
each geography.</dd>
<dt>blup</dt>
<dd>A list. BLUP (best linear unbiased predictions) from the
meta-analysis model for each geography.</dd>
<dt>coef_</dt>
<dd>A matrix of coefficients for the reduced model.</dd>
<dt>vcov_</dt>
<dd>A list. Covariance matrices for each geography for the reduced
model.</dd>
<dt>meta_analysis</dt>
<dd>Boolean. Whether to perform a meta-analysis. Defaults
to FALSE.</dd></dl>

Arguments

Run predictions from model — hc_predict_subnat

<dl>

<dt>df_list</dt>
<dd>A list of dataframes containing daily timeseries data for a
health outcome and climate variables which may be disaggregated by a
particular geography.</dd>


<dt>var_fun</dt>
<dd>Character. Exposure function for argvar
(see dlnm::crossbasis). Defaults to 'bs'.</dd>


<dt>var_per</dt>
<dd>Vector. Internal knot positions for argvar
(see dlnm::crossbasis). Defaults to c(10, 75, 90).</dd>


<dt>var_degree</dt>
<dd>Integer. Degree of the piecewise polynomial for argvar
(see dlnm::crossbasis). Defaults to 2 (quadratic).</dd>


<dt>mintempgeog_</dt>
<dd>Vector. Percentile of minimum mortality temperature for
each geography.</dd>


<dt>blup</dt>
<dd>A list. BLUP (best linear unbiased predictions) from the
meta-analysis model for each geography.</dd>


<dt>coef_</dt>
<dd>A matrix of coefficients for the reduced model.</dd>


<dt>vcov_</dt>
<dd>A list. Covariance matrices for each geography for the reduced
model.</dd>


<dt>meta_analysis</dt>
<dd>Boolean. Whether to perform a meta-analysis. Defaults
to FALSE.</dd>

</dl>

Run predictions from model

hc_predict_subnat: Run predictions from model

Description

Usage

Value

Arguments