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dampack (version 1.0.0)

calc_evppi: Estimation of the Expected Value of Partial Perfect Information (EVPPI) using a linear regression metamodel approach

Description

evppi is used to estimate the Expected Value of Partial Perfect Information (EVPPI) using a linear regression metamodel approach from a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) dataset.

Usage

calc_evppi(
  psa,
  wtp,
  params = NULL,
  outcome = c("nmb", "nhb"),
  type = c("gam", "poly"),
  poly.order = 2,
  k = -1,
  pop = 1,
  progress = TRUE
)

Arguments

psa

object of class psa, produced by make_psa_obj

wtp

willingness-to-pay threshold

params

A vector of parameter names to be analyzed in terms of EVPPI.

outcome

either net monetary benefit ("nmb") or net health benefit ("nhb")

type

either generalized additive models ("gam") or polynomial models ("poly")

poly.order

order of the polynomial, if type == "poly"

k

basis dimension, if type == "gam"

pop

scalar that corresponds to the total population

progress

TRUE or FALSE for whether or not function progress should be displayed in console.

Value

A list containing 1) a data.frame with WTP thresholds and corresponding EVPPIs for the selected parameters and 2) a list of metamodels used to estimate EVPPI for each strategy at each willingness to pay threshold.

Details

The expected value of partial pefect information (EVPPI) is the expected value of perfect information from a subset of parameters of interest, \(\theta_I\), of a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of \(D\) different strategies with parameters \(\theta = \{ \theta_I, \theta_C\}\), where \(\theta_C\) is the set of complimenatry parameters of the CEA. The function calc_evppi computes the EVPPI of \(\theta_I\) from a matrix of net monetary benefits \(B\) of the CEA. Each column of \(B\) corresponds to the net benefit \(B_d\) of strategy \(d\). The function calc_evppi computes the EVPPI using a linear regression metamodel approach following these steps:

  1. Determine the optimal strategy \(d^*\) from the expected net benefits \(\bar{B}\) $$d^* = argmax_{d} \{\bar{B}\}$$

  2. Compute the opportunity loss for each \(d\) strategy, \(L_d\) $$L_d = B_d - B_{d^*}$$

  3. Estimate a linear metamodel for the opportunity loss of each \(d\) strategy, \(L_d\), by regressing them on the spline basis functions of \(\theta_I\), \(f(\theta_I)\) $$L_d = \beta_0 + f(\theta_I) + \epsilon,$$ where \(\epsilon\) is the residual term that captures the complementary parameters \(\theta_C\) and the difference between the original simulation model and the metamodel.

  4. Compute the EVPPI of \(\theta_I\) using the estimated losses for each \(d\) strategy, \(\hat{L}_d\) from the linear regression metamodel and applying the following equation: $$EVPPI_{\theta_I} = \frac{1}{K}\sum_{i=1}^{K}\max_d(\hat{L}_d)$$ The spline model in step 3 is fitted using the `mgcv` package.

References

  1. Jalal H, Alarid-Escudero F. A General Gaussian Approximation Approach for Value of Information Analysis. Med Decis Making. 2018;38(2):174-188.

  2. Strong M, Oakley JE, Brennan A. Estimating Multiparameter Partial Expected Value of Perfect Information from a Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis Sample: A Nonparametric Regression Approach. Med Decis Making. 2014;34(3):311<U+2013>26.