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demography (version 1.20)

isfe: Integrated Squared Forecast Error for models of various orders

Description

Computes ISFE values for functional time series models of various orders.

Usage

# S3 method for demogdata
isfe(data, series=names(data$rate)[1], max.order=N-3, N=10, h=5:10,
    ages=data$age, max.age=max(ages), method=c("classical", "M", "rapca"),
    fmethod = c("arima","ar","arfima","ets","ets.na","struct","rwdrift","rw"), 
    lambda=3, ...)

Arguments

data

demogdata object.

series

name of series within data holding rates (1x1)

ages

Ages to include in fit.

max.age

Maximum age to fit.

max.order

Maximum number of basis functions to fit.

N

Minimum number of functional observations to be used in fitting a model.

h

Forecast horizons over which to average.

method

Method to use for principal components decomposition. Possibilities are “M”, “rapca” and “classical”.

fmethod

Method used for forecasting. Current possibilities are “ets”, “arima”, “ets.na”, “struct”, “rwdrift” and “rw”.

lambda

Tuning parameter for robustness when method="M".

...

Additional arguments control the fitting procedure.

Value

Numeric matrix with (max.order+1) rows and length(h) columns containing ISFE values for models of orders 0:max.order.

References

Hyndman, R.J., and Ullah, S. (2007) Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: a functional data approach. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 51, 4942-4956. http://robjhyndman.com/papers/funcfor

See Also

fdm, forecast.fdm.