pop.sim: Population simulation

Description

Simulate future sample paths of a population using functional models for mortality, fertility and migration.

Usage

pop.sim(
  mort,
  fert = NULL,
  mig = NULL,
  firstyearpop,
  N = 100,
  mfratio = 1.05,
  bootstrap = FALSE
)

Value

A list of two arrays containing male and female future simulated population values. The arrays are of dimension (p,h,N) where p is the number of age groups, h is the forecast horizon and N is the number of simulated sample paths.

Arguments

mort: Forecasts of class fmforecast2 for mortality.
fert: Forecasts of class fmforecast for female fertility.
mig: Forecasts of class fmforecast2 for net migration.
firstyearpop: Population for first year of simulation.
N: Number of sample paths to simulate.
mfratio: Male-female ratio used in distributing births.
bootstrap: If TRUE, simulation uses resampled errors rather than normally distributed errors.

Author

Rob J Hyndman

Examples

Run this code

if (FALSE) {
require(addb)
# Construct data objects
mort.sm <- smooth.demogdata(set.upperage(extract.years(australia, 1950:2002), 100))
fert.sm <- smooth.demogdata(extract.years(aus.fertility, 1950:2002))
aus.mig <- netmigration(set.upperage(australia, 100), aus.fertility, mfratio = 1.0545)
# Fit models
mort.fit <- coherentfdm(mort.sm)
fert.fit <- fdm(fert.sm)
mig.fit <- coherentfdm(aus.mig)
# Produce forecasts
mort.fcast <- forecast(mort.fit)
fert.fcast <- forecast(fert.fit)
mig.fcast <- forecast(mig.fit)
# Simulate
aus.sim <- pop.sim(mort.fcast, fert.fcast, mig.fcast, australia)
}