ensembleBMA (version 3.0-5)

slpTest: Sea-Level Pressure Test Data Set

Description

This data set gives 48-hour sea-level pressure forecasts for the US Pacific Northwest from a 5 member ensemble at the University of Washington (UW MM5) and the associated observations for five different stations for the period from April 16, 2000 to June 30, 2000 at 0 hours GMT, using a 12-km grid resolution. Pressure measurements are given in millibars/hectopascales. Note that forecasts are not available for some of the interim dates.

format

A data frame with 205 rows and 11 columns: AVN,GEN,ETA,NGM,NOGAPS forecasts from the 5 members of the ensemble (numeric). observation the observed sea-level pressure (numeric). date the date of each forecast/observation, format YYYYMMDDHH (categorical). latitude the latitude of each forecast/observation (numeric). longitude the longitude of each forecast/observation (numeric). station weather station identifier (categorical). type weather station type (categorical).

Details

This dataset is a small subset of the data used in Raftery et al. (2005), provided for the purposes of testing. Typically forecasting would be performed on much larger datasets.

References

A. E. Raftery, T. Gneiting, F. Balabdaoui and M. Polakowski, Using Bayesian Model Averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles, Monthly Weather Review 133:1155--1174, 2005. E. P. Grimit and C. F. Mass, Initial results of a mesoscale short-range ensemble forecasting system over the Pacific Northwest, Weather and Forecasting 17:192--205, 2002.

Examples

data(slpTest)
 
  memberLabels <- c("AVN","GEM","ETA","NGM","NOGAPS")
  slpTestData <- ensembleData(forecasts = slpTest[ ,memberLabels],
                   observations = slpTest$obs, dates = slpTest$date)

  slpTestBMA <- ensembleBMA( slpTestData, date="2000063000",
        model="normal", trainingRule = list(length = 25, lag = 2))
  slpTestForc <- quantileForecast( slpTestBMA, slpTestData, 
                                      date="2000063000")