Implements a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Hospitalized-Recovered (SEIHR) model for Measles within a school. The model includes isolation of detected cases and optional quarantine of unvaccinated individuals.
ModelMeaslesQuarantine(
n,
prevalence = 1,
contact_rate = 15/transmission_rate/prodromal_period,
transmission_rate = 0.9,
vax_efficacy = 0.99,
vax_improved_recovery = 0.5,
incubation_period = 12,
prodromal_period = 4,
rash_period = 3,
days_undetected = 2,
hospitalization_rate = 0.2,
hospitalization_period = 7,
prop_vaccinated = 1 - 1/15,
quarantine_period = 21,
quarantine_willingness = 1,
isolation_period = 4
)The ModelMeaslesQuarantine function returns a model of classes epiworld_model and epiworld_measlesquarantine.
Number of agents in the model.
Initial number of agents with the virus.
Average number of contacts per step. Default is set to match the basic reproductive number (R0) of 15 (see details).
Probability of transmission.
Probability of vaccine efficacy.
Increase in recovery rate due to vaccination.
Average number of incubation days.
Average number of prodromal days.
Average number of rash days.
Average number of days undetected. Detected cases are moved to isolation and trigger the quarantine process.
Probability of hospitalization.
Average number of days in hospital.
Proportion of the population vaccinated.
Total duration of quarantine.
Probability of accepting quarantine ( see details).
Total duration of isolation.
This model was built as a response to the US Measles outbreak in 2025. This is a collaboration between the University of Utah (ForeSITE center grant) and the Utah Department of Health and Human Services.
This model can be described as a SEIHR model with isolation and quarantine. The infectious state is divided into prodromal and rash phases. Furthermore, the quarantine state includes exposed, susceptible, prodromal, and recovered states.
The model is a perfect mixing model, meaning that all agents are in contact with each other. The model is designed to simulate the spread of Measles within a school setting, where the population is assumed to be homogeneous.
The quarantine process is triggered any time that an agent with rash is
detected. The agent is then isolated and all agents who are unvaccinated are
quarantined (if willing). Isolated agents then may be moved out of the
isolation in isolation_period days. The quarantine willingness parameter
sets the probability of accepting quarantine. If a quarantined agent develops
rash, they are moved to isolation, which triggers a new quarantine process.
The basic reproductive number in Measles is estimated to be about 15. By default, the contact rate of the model is set so that the R0 matches 15.
When quarantine_period is set to -1, the model assumes
there is no quarantine process. The same happens with isolation_period.
Since the quarantine process is triggered by an isolation, then
isolation_period = -1 automatically sets quarantine_period = -1.
Jones, Trahern W, and Katherine Baranowski. 2019. "Measles and Mumps: Old Diseases, New Outbreaks."
Liu, Fengchen, Wayne T A Enanoria, Jennifer Zipprich, Seth Blumberg, Kathleen Harriman, Sarah F Ackley, William D Wheaton, Justine L Allpress, and Travis C Porco. 2015. "The Role of Vaccination Coverage, Individual Behaviors, and the Public Health Response in the Control of Measles Epidemics: An Agent-Based Simulation for California." BMC Public Health 15 (1): 447. tools:::Rd_expr_doi("10.1186/s12889-015-1766-6").
"Measles Disease Plan." 2019. Utah Department of Health and Human Services. https://epi.utah.gov/wp-content/uploads/Measles-disease-plan.pdf.
epiworld-methods
Other Models:
ModelDiffNet(),
ModelSEIR(),
ModelSEIRCONN(),
ModelSEIRD(),
ModelSEIRDCONN(),
ModelSEIRMixing(),
ModelSIR(),
ModelSIRCONN(),
ModelSIRD(),
ModelSIRDCONN(),
ModelSIRLogit(),
ModelSIRMixing(),
ModelSIS(),
ModelSISD(),
ModelSURV(),
epiworld-data
# An in a school with low vaccination
model_measles <- ModelMeaslesQuarantine(
n = 500,
prevalence = 1,
prop_vaccinated = 0.70
)
# Running and printing
run(model_measles, ndays = 100, seed = 1912)
model_measles
plot(model_measles)
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