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To produce forecast means (instead of forecast medians) it is necessary to adjust the back-transformation function relative to the forecast variance.
bias_adjust(bt, sd)
The back-transformation function
The forecast standard deviation
More details about bias adjustment can be found in the transformations vignette: read the vignette: vignette("transformations", package = "fable")
vignette("transformations", package = "fable")
adj_fn <- bias_adjust(function(x) exp(x), 1:10) y <- rnorm(10) exp(y) adj_fn(y)
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