fabletools (version 0.5.0)

skill_score: Forecast skill score measure

Description

This function converts other error metrics such as MSE into a skill score. The reference or benchmark forecasting method is the Naive method for non-seasonal data, and the seasonal naive method for seasonal data. When used within accuracy.fbl_ts, it is important that the data contains both the training and test data, as the training data is used to compute the benchmark forecasts.

Usage

skill_score(measure)

Arguments

measure

The accuracy measure to use in computing the skill score.

Examples

skill_score(MSE)

if (FALSE) { # requireNamespace("fable", quietly = TRUE)
library(fable)
library(tsibble)

lung_deaths <- as_tsibble(cbind(mdeaths, fdeaths))
lung_deaths %>% 
  dplyr::filter(index < yearmonth("1979 Jan")) %>%
  model(
    ets = ETS(value ~ error("M") + trend("A") + season("A")),
    lm = TSLM(value ~ trend() + season())
  ) %>%
  forecast(h = "1 year") %>%
  accuracy(lung_deaths, measures = list(skill = skill_score(MSE)))
}