forecast.ets

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Forecasting using ETS models

Returns forecasts and other information for univariate ETS models.

Keywords
ts
Usage
## S3 method for class 'ets':
forecast(object, h=ifelse(object$m>1, 2*object$m, 10), level=c(80,95),
	fan=FALSE, simulate=FALSE, bootstrap=FALSE, npaths=5000,...)
Arguments
object
An object of class "ets". Usually the result of a call to ets.
h
Number of periods for forecasting
level
Confidence level for prediction intervals.
fan
If TRUE, level is set to seq(50,99,by=1). This is suitable for fan plots.
simulate
If TRUE, prediction intervals produced by simulation rather than using analytic formulae.
bootstrap
If TRUE, and if simulate=TRUE, then simulation uses resampled errors rather than normally distributed errors.
npaths
Number of sample paths used in computing simulated prediction intervals.
...
Other arguments.
Value

  • An object of class "forecast". The function summary is used to obtain and print a summary of the results, while the function plot produces a plot of the forecasts and prediction intervals. The generic accessor functions fitted.values and residuals extract useful features of the value returned by forecast.ets. An object of class "forecast" is a list containing at least the following elements:
  • modelA list containing information about the fitted model
  • methodThe name of the forecasting method as a character string
  • meanPoint forecasts as a time series
  • lowerLower limits for prediction intervals
  • upperUpper limits for prediction intervals
  • levelThe confidence values associated with the prediction intervals
  • xThe original time series (either object itself or the time series used to create the model stored as object).
  • residualsResiduals from the fitted model. That is x minus fitted values.
  • fittedFitted values (one-step forecasts)

See Also

ets, ses, holt, hw.

Aliases
  • forecast.ets
Examples
fit <- ets(USAccDeaths)
plot(forecast(fit,h=48))
Documentation reproduced from package forecast, version 2.05, License: GPL (>= 2)

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