# naive

From forecast v4.04
by Rob Hyndman

##### Naive forecasts

`naive()`

returns forecasts and prediction intervals for an ARIMA(0,1,0) random walk model applied to x.
`snaive()`

returns forecasts and prediction intervals from an ARIMA(0,0,0)(0,1,0)m model where m is the seasonal period.

- Keywords
- ts

##### Usage

```
naive(x, h=10, level=c(80,95), fan=FALSE, lambda=NULL)
snaive(x, h=2*frequency(x), level=c(80,95), fan=FALSE, lambda=NULL)
```

##### Arguments

- x
- a numeric vector or time series
- h
- Number of periods for forecasting
- level
- Confidence levels for prediction intervals.
- fan
- If TRUE, level is set to seq(50,99,by=1). This is suitable for fan plots.
- lambda
- Box-Cox transformation parameter. Ignored if NULL. Otherwise, forecasts back-transformed via an inverse Box-Cox transformation.

##### Details

These functions are simply convenient wrappers to `Arima`

with the appropriate arguments
to return naive and seasonal naive forecasts.

##### Value

- An object of class "
`forecast`

".The function

`summary`

is used to obtain and print a summary of the results, while the function`plot`

produces a plot of the forecasts and prediction intervals.The generic accessor functions

`fitted.values`

and`residuals`

extract useful features of the value returned by`naive`

or`snaive`

.An object of class

`"forecast"`

is a list containing at least the following elements: model A list containing information about the fitted model method The name of the forecasting method as a character string mean Point forecasts as a time series lower Lower limits for prediction intervals upper Upper limits for prediction intervals level The confidence values associated with the prediction intervals x The original time series (either `object`

itself or the time series used to create the model stored as`object`

).residuals Residuals from the fitted model. That is x minus fitted values. fitted Fitted values (one-step forecasts)

##### See Also

##### Examples

```
plot(naive(gold,h=50),include=200)
plot(snaive(wineind))
```

*Documentation reproduced from package forecast, version 4.04, License: GPL (>= 2)*

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