naive

0th

Percentile

Naive forecasts

naive() returns forecasts and prediction intervals for an ARIMA(0,1,0) random walk model applied to x. snaive() returns forecasts and prediction intervals from an ARIMA(0,0,0)(0,1,0)m model where m is the seasonal period.

Keywords
ts
Usage
naive(x, h=10, level=c(80,95), fan=FALSE, lambda=NULL)
snaive(x, h=2*frequency(x), level=c(80,95), fan=FALSE, lambda=NULL)
Arguments
x
a numeric vector or time series
h
Number of periods for forecasting
level
Confidence levels for prediction intervals.
fan
If TRUE, level is set to seq(50,99,by=1). This is suitable for fan plots.
lambda
Box-Cox transformation parameter. Ignored if NULL. Otherwise, forecasts back-transformed via an inverse Box-Cox transformation.
Details

These functions are simply convenient wrappers to Arima with the appropriate arguments to return naive and seasonal naive forecasts.

Value

  • An object of class "forecast".

    The function summary is used to obtain and print a summary of the results, while the function plot produces a plot of the forecasts and prediction intervals.

    The generic accessor functions fitted.values and residuals extract useful features of the value returned by naive or snaive.

    An object of class "forecast" is a list containing at least the following elements:

  • modelA list containing information about the fitted model
  • methodThe name of the forecasting method as a character string
  • meanPoint forecasts as a time series
  • lowerLower limits for prediction intervals
  • upperUpper limits for prediction intervals
  • levelThe confidence values associated with the prediction intervals
  • xThe original time series (either object itself or the time series used to create the model stored as object).
  • residualsResiduals from the fitted model. That is x minus fitted values.
  • fittedFitted values (one-step forecasts)

See Also

Arima, rwf

Aliases
  • naive
  • snaive
Examples
plot(naive(gold,h=50),include=200)
plot(snaive(wineind))
Documentation reproduced from package forecast, version 6.0, License: GPL (>= 2)

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