jubilee.macro_predict

data table, usually this is <code>lm.dtb</code> of the <code>rs</code> object,
with GDP log-return percent <code>(logrp.N, logrp.K)</code> calculated.

the list returned from <code>jubilee.macro_fit</code>, which provides
regression parameters for the prediction (not the data).

numeric, vector of new <code>rate.tb3ms</code> with length equal to NROW of dtb.
Default is <code>NA</code>.

new.tb3ms

numeric, vector of new <code>rate.gs10</code> with length equal to NROW of dtb.
Default is <code>NA</code>.

new.gs10

This utility performs the prediction from the linear models of UNRATE and GDP.
The purpose of this method is to automate the prediction and to allow users
experimenting optimization on the natural rate of interest.

data

A long-term forecast model called "Jubilee-Tectonic model" is implemented to forecast future returns of the U.S. stock market, Treasury yield, and gold price. The five-factor model forecasts the 10-year and 20-year future equity returns with high R-squared above 80 percent. It is based on linear growth and mean reversion characteristics in the U.S. stock market. This model also enhances the CAPE model by introducing the hypothesis that there are fault lines in the historical CAPE, which can be calibrated and corrected through statistical learning. In addition, it contains a module for business cycles, optimal interest rate, and recession forecasts.

jubilee.macro_predict: Prediction from UNRATE and GDP models

Description

Usage

Arguments

Value