jubilee.optimal_tb3ms

data table, usually this is <code>lm.dtb</code> of the <code>rs</code> object,
with GDP log-return percent <code>(logrp.N, logrp.K)</code> calculated.

the list returned from <code>jubilee.macro_fit</code>.

numeric, the penalty vector for the models.
Default is <code>c(1,1,1)</code>.

penalty

This utility calculates the optimal TB3MS using the analytic solution.

data

A long-term forecast model called "Jubilee-Tectonic model" is implemented to forecast future returns of the U.S. stock market, Treasury yield, and gold price. The five-factor model forecasts the 10-year and 20-year future equity returns with high R-squared above 80 percent. It is based on linear growth and mean reversion characteristics in the U.S. stock market. This model also enhances the CAPE model by introducing the hypothesis that there are fault lines in the historical CAPE, which can be calibrated and corrected through statistical learning. In addition, it contains a module for business cycles, optimal interest rate, and recession forecasts.

jubilee.optimal_tb3ms: Calculate the optimal TB3MS

Description

Usage

Arguments

Value