Hidden Markov Model for Financial Time-Series Based on Lambda
Distribution
Description
Hidden Markov Model (HMM) based on symmetric lambda distribution
framework is implemented for the study of return time-series in the financial
market. Major features in the S&P500 index, such as regime identification,
volatility clustering, and anti-correlation between return and volatility,
can be extracted from HMM cleanly. Univariate symmetric lambda distribution
is essentially a location-scale family of exponential power distribution.
Such distribution is suitable for describing highly leptokurtic time series
obtained from the financial market. It provides a theoretically solid foundation
to explore such data where the normal distribution is not adequate. The HMM
implementation follows closely the book: "Hidden Markov Models for Time Series",
by Zucchini, MacDonald, Langrock (2016).