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modeltime

Tidy time series forecasting in R.

Mission: Our number 1 goal is to make high-performance time series analysis easier, faster, and more scalable. Modeltime solves this with a simple to use infrastructure for modeling and forecasting time series.

Quickstart Video

For those that prefer video tutorials, we have an 11-minute YouTube Video that walks you through the Modeltime Workflow.

Tutorials

Installation

CRAN version:

install.packages("modeltime", dependencies = TRUE)

Development version:

remotes::install_github("business-science/modeltime", dependencies = TRUE)

Why modeltime?

Modeltime unlocks time series models and machine learning in one framework

No need to switch back and forth between various frameworks. modeltime unlocks machine learning & classical time series analysis.

  • forecast: Use ARIMA, ETS, and more models coming (arima_reg(), arima_boost(), & exp_smoothing()).
  • prophet: Use Facebook’s Prophet algorithm (prophet_reg() & prophet_boost())
  • tidymodels: Use any parsnip model: rand_forest(), boost_tree(), linear_reg(), mars(), svm_rbf() to forecast

Forecast faster

A streamlined workflow for forecasting

Modeltime incorporates a streamlined workflow (see Getting Started with Modeltime) for using best practices to forecast.

Meet the modeltime ecosystem

Learn a growing ecosystem of forecasting packages

Modeltime is part of a growing ecosystem of Modeltime forecasting packages.

Summary

Modeltime is an amazing ecosystem for time series forecasting. But it can take a long time to learn:

  • Many algorithms
  • Ensembling and Resampling
  • Machine Learning
  • Deep Learning
  • Scalable Modeling: 10,000+ time series

Your probably thinking how am I ever going to learn time series forecasting. Here’s the solution that will save you years of struggling.

Take the High-Performance Forecasting Course

Become the forecasting expert for your organization

High-Performance Time Series Course

Time Series is Changing

Time series is changing. Businesses now need 10,000+ time series forecasts every day. This is what I call a High-Performance Time Series Forecasting System (HPTSF) - Accurate, Robust, and Scalable Forecasting.

High-Performance Forecasting Systems will save companies by improving accuracy and scalability. Imagine what will happen to your career if you can provide your organization a “High-Performance Time Series Forecasting System” (HPTSF System).

How to Learn High-Performance Time Series Forecasting

I teach how to build a HPTFS System in my High-Performance Time Series Forecasting Course. You will learn:

  • Time Series Machine Learning (cutting-edge) with Modeltime - 30+ Models (Prophet, ARIMA, XGBoost, Random Forest, & many more)
  • Deep Learning with GluonTS (Competition Winners)
  • Time Series Preprocessing, Noise Reduction, & Anomaly Detection
  • Feature engineering using lagged variables & external regressors
  • Hyperparameter Tuning
  • Time series cross-validation
  • Ensembling Multiple Machine Learning & Univariate Modeling Techniques (Competition Winner)
  • Scalable Forecasting - Forecast 1000+ time series in parallel
  • and more.

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Version

Install

install.packages('modeltime')

Monthly Downloads

2,562

Version

1.3.0

License

MIT + file LICENSE

Issues

Pull Requests

Stars

Forks

Maintainer

Matt Dancho

Last Published

July 29th, 2024

Functions in modeltime (1.3.0)

create_model_grid

Helper to make parsnip model specs from a dials parameter grid
arima_xgboost_predict_impl

Bridge prediction Function for ARIMA-XGBoost Models
combine_modeltime_tables

Combine multiple Modeltime Tables into a single Modeltime Table
control_modeltime

Control aspects of the training process
arima_reg

General Interface for ARIMA Regression Models
create_xreg_recipe

Developer Tools for preparing XREGS (Regressors)
arima_xgboost_fit_impl

Bridge ARIMA-XGBoost Modeling function
auto_adam_fit_impl

Low-Level ADAM function for translating modeltime to forecast
auto_arima_fit_impl

Low-Level ARIMA function for translating modeltime to forecast
auto_arima_xgboost_fit_impl

Bridge ARIMA-XGBoost Modeling function
ets_fit_impl

Low-Level Exponential Smoothing function for translating modeltime to forecast
drop_modeltime_model

Drop a Model from a Modeltime Table
exp_smoothing

General Interface for Exponential Smoothing State Space Models
get_model_description

Get model descriptions for parsnip, workflows & modeltime objects
ets_predict_impl

Bridge prediction function for Exponential Smoothing models
exp_smoothing_params

Tuning Parameters for Exponential Smoothing Models
get_arima_description

Get model descriptions for Arima objects
log_extractors

Log Extractor Functions for Modeltime Nested Tables
is_residuals

Test if a table contains residuals.
croston_predict_impl

Bridge prediction function for CROSTON models
.prepare_transform

Prepare Recursive Transformations
croston_fit_impl

Low-Level Exponential Smoothing function for translating modeltime to forecast
maape_vec

Mean Arctangent Absolute Percentage Error
is_modeltime_table

Test if object is a Modeltime Table
is_modeltime_model

Test if object contains a fitted modeltime model
m750

The 750th Monthly Time Series used in the M4 Competition
is_calibrated

Test if a Modeltime Table has been calibrated
get_tbats_description

Get model descriptions for TBATS objects
modeltime_fit_workflowset

Fit a workflowset object to one or multiple time series
modeltime_calibrate

Preparation for forecasting
m750_training_resamples

The Time Series Cross Validation Resamples the M750 Data (Training Set)
make_ts_splits

Generate a Time Series Train/Test Split Indicies
metric_sets

Forecast Accuracy Metrics Sets
modeltime_accuracy

Calculate Accuracy Metrics
m750_models

Three (3) Models trained on the M750 Data (Training Set)
m750_splits

The results of train/test splitting the M750 Data
modeltime_table

Scale forecast analysis with a Modeltime Table
naive_fit_impl

Low-Level NAIVE Forecast
load_namespace

These are not intended for use by the general public.
modeltime_nested_select_best

Select the Best Models from Nested Modeltime Table
modeltime_refit

Refit one or more trained models to new data
mdl_time_refit

Modeltime Refit Helpers
modeltime_forecast

Forecast future data
modeltime_nested_fit

Fit Tidymodels Workflows to Nested Time Series
mdl_time_forecast

Modeltime Forecast Helpers
modeltime_residuals

Extract Residuals Information
modeltime_residuals_test

Apply Statistical Tests to Residuals
maape

Mean Arctangent Absolute Percentage Error
modeltime_nested_refit

Refits a Nested Modeltime Table
modeltime_nested_forecast

Modeltime Nested Forecast
nnetar_params

Tuning Parameters for NNETAR Models
parse_index

Developer Tools for parsing date and date-time information
parallel_start

Start parallel clusters using parallel package
naive_predict_impl

Bridge prediction function for NAIVE Models
nnetar_reg

General Interface for NNETAR Regression Models
panel_tail

Filter the last N rows (Tail) for multiple time series
nnetar_predict_impl

Bridge prediction function for ARIMA models
naive_reg

General Interface for NAIVE Forecast Models
prophet_predict_impl

Bridge prediction function for PROPHET models
plot_modeltime_residuals

Interactive Residuals Visualization
new_modeltime_bridge

Constructor for creating modeltime models
prep_nested

Prepared Nested Modeltime Data
prophet_boost

General Interface for Boosted PROPHET Time Series Models
nnetar_fit_impl

Low-Level NNETAR function for translating modeltime to forecast
prophet_fit_impl

Low-Level PROPHET function for translating modeltime to PROPHET
prophet_reg

General Interface for PROPHET Time Series Models
plot_modeltime_forecast

Interactive Forecast Visualization
%>%

Pipe operator
prophet_params

Tuning Parameters for Prophet Models
pluck_modeltime_model

Extract model by model id in a Modeltime Table
smooth_predict_impl

Bridge prediction function for Exponential Smoothing models
recursive

Create a Recursive Time Series Model from a Parsnip or Workflow Regression Model
recipe_helpers

Developer Tools for processing XREGS (Regressors)
snaive_fit_impl

Low-Level SNAIVE Forecast
summarize_accuracy_metrics

Summarize Accuracy Metrics
stlm_ets_predict_impl

Bridge prediction function for ARIMA models
seasonal_reg

General Interface for Multiple Seasonality Regression Models (TBATS, STLM)
stlm_ets_fit_impl

Low-Level stlm function for translating modeltime to forecast
prophet_xgboost_fit_impl

Low-Level PROPHET function for translating modeltime to Boosted PROPHET
prophet_xgboost_predict_impl

Bridge prediction function for Boosted PROPHET models
smooth_fit_impl

Low-Level Exponential Smoothing function for translating modeltime to forecast
stlm_arima_predict_impl

Bridge prediction function for ARIMA models
pull_parsnip_preprocessor

Pulls the Formula from a Fitted Parsnip Model Object
temporal_hierarchy_params

Tuning Parameters for TEMPORAL HIERARCHICAL Models
pull_modeltime_residuals

Extracts modeltime residuals data from a Modeltime Model
update_model_description

Update the model description by model id in a Modeltime Table
tbats_fit_impl

Low-Level tbats function for translating modeltime to forecast
table_modeltime_accuracy

Interactive Accuracy Tables
update_modeltime_model

Update the model by model id in a Modeltime Table
temporal_hierarchy

General Interface for Temporal Hierarchical Forecasting (THIEF) Models
theta_predict_impl

Bridge prediction function for THETA models
tbats_predict_impl

Bridge prediction function for ARIMA models
temporal_hier_predict_impl

Bridge prediction function for TEMPORAL HIERARCHICAL models
tidyeval

Tidy eval helpers
snaive_predict_impl

Bridge prediction function for SNAIVE Models
theta_fit_impl

Low-Level Exponential Smoothing function for translating modeltime to forecast
time_series_params

Tuning Parameters for Time Series (ts-class) Models
window_reg

General Interface for Window Forecast Models
temporal_hier_fit_impl

Low-Level Temporaral Hierarchical function for translating modeltime to forecast
type_sum.mdl_time_tbl

Succinct summary of Modeltime Tables
xgboost_impl

Wrapper for parsnip::xgb_train
stlm_arima_fit_impl

Low-Level stlm function for translating modeltime to forecast
xgboost_predict

Wrapper for xgboost::predict
window_function_fit_impl

Low-Level Window Forecast
window_function_predict_impl

Bridge prediction function for window Models
arima_params

Tuning Parameters for ARIMA Models
adam_fit_impl

Low-Level ADAM function for translating modeltime to forecast
adam_params

Tuning Parameters for ADAM Models
add_modeltime_model

Add a Model into a Modeltime Table
arima_boost

General Interface for "Boosted" ARIMA Regression Models
adam_reg

General Interface for ADAM Regression Models
Arima_predict_impl

Bridge prediction function for ARIMA models
Arima_fit_impl

Low-Level ARIMA function for translating modeltime to forecast
Adam_predict_impl

Bridge prediction function for ADAM models
Auto_adam_predict_impl

Bridge prediction function for AUTO ADAM models