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mrds (version 3.0.1)

dht.se: Variance and confidence intervals for density and abundance estimates

Description

Computes standard error, cv, and log-normal confidence intervals for abundance and density within each region (if any) and for the total of all the regions. It also produces the correlation matrix for regional and total estimates.

Usage

dht.se(
  model,
  region.table,
  samples,
  obs,
  options,
  numRegions,
  estimate.table,
  Nhat.by.sample
)

Value

List with 2 elements:

estimate.table

completed table with se, cv and confidence limits

vc

correlation matrix of estimates

Arguments

model

ddf model object

region.table

table of region values

samples

table of samples(replicates)

obs

table of observations

options

list of options that can be set (see dht)

numRegions

number of regions

estimate.table

table of estimate values

Nhat.by.sample

estimated abundances by sample

Author

Jeff Laake

Details

The variance has two components:

  • variation due to uncertainty from estimation of the detection function parameters;

  • variation in abundance due to random sample selection.

The first component (model parameter uncertainty) is computed using a delta method estimate of variance (huggins1989;nobracketsmrds; huggins1991;nobracketsmrds; borchers1998;nobracketsmrds) in which the first derivatives of the abundance estimator with respect to the parameters in the detection function are computed numerically (see DeltaMethod).

The second component (encounter rate variance) can be computed in one of several ways depending on the form taken for the encounter rate and the estimator used. To begin with there three possible values for varflag to calculate encounter rate:

  • 0 uses a negative binomial variance for the number of observations (equation 13 of borchers1998;nobracketsmrds). This estimator is only useful if the sampled region is the survey region and the objects are not clustered; this situation will not occur very often;

  • 1 uses the encounter rate \(n/L\) (objects observed per unit transect) from buckland2001;textualmrds pg 78-79 (equation 3.78) for line transects (see also fewster2009;nobracketsmrds estimator R2). This variance estimator is not appropriate if size or a derivative of size is used in the detection function;

  • 2 is the default and uses the encounter rate estimator \(\hat{N}/L\) (estimated abundance per unit transect) suggested by innes2002;textualmrds and marques2004;textualmrds.

In general if any covariates are used in the models, the default varflag=2 is preferable as the estimated abundance will take into account variability due to covariate effects. If the population is clustered the mean group size and standard error is also reported.

For options 1 and 2, it is then possible to choose one of the estimator forms given in fewster2009;textualmrds. For line transects: "R2", "R3", "R4", "S1", "S2", "O1", "O2" or "O3" can be used by specifying ervar in the list of options provided by the options argument (default "R2"). For points, either the "P2" or "P3" estimator can be selected (>=mrds 2.3.0 default "P2", <= mrds 2.2.9 default "P3"). See varn and fewster2009;textualmrds for further details on these estimators.

Exceptions to the above occur if there is only one sample in a stratum. In this situation, varflag=0 continues to use a negative binomial variance while the other options assume a Poisson variance (\(Var(x)=x\)), where when varflag=1 x is number of detections in the covered region and when varflag=2 x is the abundance in the covered region. It also assumes a known variance so \(z=1.96\) is used for critical value. In all other cases the degrees of freedom for the \(t\)-distribution assumed for the log(abundance) or log(density) is based on the Satterthwaite approximation (buckland2001;nobracketsmrds pg 90) for the degrees of freedom (df). The df are weighted by the squared cv in combining the two sources of variation because of the assumed log-normal distribution because the components are multiplicative. For combining df for the sampling variance across regions they are weighted by the variance because it is a sum across regions.

The coefficient of variation (CV) associated with the abundance estimates is calculated based on the following formula for the varflag options 1 and 2:

varflag=1

$$CV(\hat{N}) = \sqrt{\left(\frac{\sqrt{n}}{n}\right)^2+CV(\hat{p})^2}$$

varflag=2

$$CV(\hat{N}) = \sqrt{\left(\frac{\sqrt{\hat{N}}}{\hat{N}}\right)^2+CV(\hat{p})^2}$$ where n is the number of observations, \(\hat{N}\) is the estimated abundance and \(\hat{p}\) is the average probability of detection for an animal in the covered area.

A non-zero correlation between regional estimates can occur from using a common detection function across regions. This is reflected in the correlation matrix of the regional and total estimates which is given in the value list. It is only needed if subtotals of regional estimates are needed.

References

See Also

dht, print.dht