openintro (version 1.3)

houseRace10: Election results for the 2010 U.S. House of Represenatives races

Description

Election results for the 2010 U.S. House of Represenatives races

Usage

data(houseRace10)

source

Data was collected from MSNBC.com on November 9th, 2010.

Details

This analysis in the Examples section was inspired by and is similar to that of Nate Silver's district-level analysis on the FiveThirtyEight blog in the New York Times:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/08/2010-an-aligning-election/

Examples

data(houseRace10)
hr <- table(houseRace10[,c("abbr", "party1")])
nr <- apply(hr, 1, sum)

data(prRace08)
pr   <- prRace08[prRace08$state != "DC",c("state", "pObama")]
hr   <- hr[as.character(pr$state),]
(fit <- glm(hr ~ pr$pObama, family=binomial))

x1 <- pr$pObama[match(houseRace10$abbr, pr$state)]
y1 <- (houseRace10$party1 == "Democrat")+0
g  <- glm(y1 ~ x1, family=binomial)


x  <- pr$pObama[pr$state != "DC"]
nr <- apply(hr, 1, sum)
plot(x, hr[,"Democrat"]/nr, pch=19, cex=sqrt(nr), col="#22558844", xlim=c(20, 80), ylim=c(0, 1), xlab="Percent vote for Obama in 2008", ylab="Probability of Democrat winning House seat")
X  <- seq(0, 100, 0.1)
lo <- -5.6079 + 0.1009*X
p  <- exp(lo)/(1+exp(lo))
lines(X, p)
abline(h=0:1, lty=2, col="#888888")