pandemics (version 0.1.0)
Monitoring a Developing Pandemic with Available Data
Description
Full dynamic system to describe and forecast the spread and the severity
of a developing pandemic, based on available data. These data are number of infections,
hospitalizations, deaths and recoveries notified each day. The system consists of three
transitions, infection-infection, infection-hospital and hospital-death/recovery.
The intensities of these transitions are dynamic and estimated using non-parametric local
linear estimators. The package can be used to provide forecasts and survival indicators
such as the median time spent in hospital and the probability that a patient who has been
in hospital for a number of days can leave it alive. Methods are described in Gámiz,
Mammen, Martínez-Miranda, and Nielsen (2024) and
.