Continuous Development Models for Incremental Time-Series
Analysis
Description
Using the Bayesian state-space approach, we developed a continuous development model to quantify dynamic incremental changes in the response variable. While the model was originally developed for daily changes in forest green-up, the model can be used to predict any similar process. The CDM can capture both timing and rate of nonlinear processes. Unlike statics methods, which aggregate variations into a single metric, our dynamic model tracks the changing impacts over time. The CDM accommodates nonlinear responses to variation in predictors, which changes throughout development.