The negative binomial model relaxes the assumption in the
Poisson model that the (conditional) variance equals the (conditional)
mean, by estimating one extra parameter. A likelihood ratio (LR) test
can be used to test the null hypothesis that the restriction implicit
in the Poisson model is true. The LR test-statistic has a non-standard
distribution, even asymptotically, since the negative binomial
over-dispersion parameter (called theta in glm.nb) is restricted to be
positive. The asymptotic distribution of the LR test-statistic has
probability mass of one half at zero, and a half
$\chi^2_1$ distribution above zero. This means
that if testing at the $p$ = .05 level, we should not reject the
null unless the LR test-statistic exceeds the critical value
associated with the $p$ = .025 level; this LR test involves just
one parameter restriction, so the critical value of the test statistic
at the $p$ = .05 test statistic is 5.02, instead of the usual 3.8
(i.e., the .975 quantile of the $\chi^2_1$
distribution, versus the .95 quantile).
A Poisson model is run using glm with family set to link{poisson}, using the
formula in the negbin model object passed as input. The
logLik functions are used to extract the log-likelihood
for each model.
References
A. Colin Cameron and Pravin K. Trivedi (1998) Regression
analysis of count data. New York: Cambridge University Press.