s2dverification (version 2.5.0)

CRPS: Compute Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) For Ensemble Forecasts

Description

Returns the value of the CRPS.

Usage

CRPS(obs, pred)

Arguments

obs

Vector of observations for a continuous variable (e.g. rainfall)

pred

Matrix of ensemble forecasts for a continuous variable (e.g. rainfall). It should have the following structure pred[nmembers,nsdates]

Value

CRPS

Continuous ranked probability score

References

Wilks (2006) Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Jolliffe and Stephenson (2012) Forecast verification: A practitioner's guide in the Atmospheric science Hersbach (2000) Weather and Forecasting 15:559-570

Examples

a <- runif(10)
b <- array(, dim = c(10,10))
for (i in 1:10) {
  b[i, ] <- runif(10)
}
x <- CRPS(a, b)
x$CRPS