scoring (version 0.4)

plotscore: Plot a Two-Alternative Scoring Rule

Description

Given parameters of a two-alternative scoring rule family, plot the hypothetical scores that would be obtained for each forecast/outcome combination.

Usage

plotscore(param = c(2, 0.5), fam = "pow", bounds, reverse = FALSE, legend = TRUE, ...)

Arguments

param

Numeric vector of length 2, containing the parameters for fam. For family beta, these are the parameters commonly denoted alpha and beta. For families pow and sph, these correspond to the f

fam

scoring rule family. pow (default) is the power family, beta is the beta family, sph is the pseudospherical family.

bounds

Lower and upper bounds supplied to calcscore.

reverse

reverse argument supplied to calcscore.

legend

Should a legend be displayed? Defaults to TRUE

...

Other arguments to plot()

Value

• Returns the result of a plot() call that graphs the scoring rule.

Details

For more information on the scoring rule families and the bounds and reverse arguments, see the details of calcscore().

References

Buja, A., Stuetzle, W., & Shen, Y. (2005). Loss functions for binary class probability estimation and classification: Structure and applications. (Obtained from http://stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~buja/PAPERS/)

Jose, V. R. R., Nau, R. F., & Winkler, R. L. (2008). Scoring rules, generalized entropy, and utility maximization. Operations Research, 56, 1146--1157.

Jose, V. R. R., Nau, R. F., & Winkler, R. L. (2009). Sensitivity to distance and baseline distributions in forecast evaluation. Management Science, 55, 582--590.

Merkle, E. C. & Steyvers, M. (in press). Choosing a strictly proper scoring rule. Decision Analysis.

See Also

calcscore

Examples

## Plot Brier score from power family with natural bounds
plotscore(c(2,.5), fam="pow")

## Plot Brier score from beta family with bounds of 0 and 1
plotscore(c(1,1), fam="beta", bounds=c(0,1))

## Plot log score
plotscore(c(0,0), fam="beta")

## Score from pseudospherical family with
## baseline of .3 and (0,1) bounds
plotscore(c(3, .3), fam="sph", bounds=c(0,1))